9 weather models · one stack

Washington D.C. weather

Q: Will it rain in Washington D.C. tomorrow?

Dry: no model shows rain. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.00 in, ranging from 0.00 in to 0.02 in.

Q: When will it rain next in Washington D.C.?

The next day most models agree on rain is Thursday 5 November: 100% of models, about 0.14 in.

Q: What do ECMWF and GFS say for Washington D.C. today?

ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 71°F with 0.00 in of rain; GFS (the American model) says 73°F with 0.00 in. The median of all 9 models is 71°F.

Q: Which weather model is most accurate for Washington D.C.?

On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.

Q: How reliable is the Washington D.C. forecast this week?

The least certain day is Friday (confidence 60/100): GFS forecasts 1.05 in of rain while ECMWF forecasts <0.01 in.

District of Columbia, United States 38.91°, -77.07° · 12 m Local time 20:14 Confidence 84%

Washington D.C. weather today: 9 models agree with high confidence on a high of 71°F and a low of 48°F. Dry: no model shows rain. Tomorrow: 74°F. Dry: no model shows rain. Next likely rain: Thursday 5 November (100% of models, ~0.14 in).

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The stack

Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.

16-day consensus

Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.

Today

3 Nov

71° 48°

0%0.00 in

84%

Wed

4 Nov

74° 54°

0%0.00 in

85%

Thu

5 Nov

73° 64°

100%0.14 in

79%

Fri

6 Nov

69° 58°

78%0.35 in

60%

Sat

7 Nov

58° 48°

22%0.00 in

71%

Sun

8 Nov

60° 44°

0%0.00 in

81%

Mon

9 Nov

58° 46°

0%0.00 in

71%

Tue

10 Nov

66° 42°

0%0.00 in

61%

Wed

11 Nov

60° 47°

0%0.00 in

72%

Thu

12 Nov

56° 42°

0%0.00 in

62%

Fri

13 Nov

57° 42°

0%0.00 in

45%

Sat

14 Nov

67° 41°

33%0.00 in

23%

Sun

15 Nov

66° 40°

0%0.00 in

45%

Mon

16 Nov

70° 48°

33%0.00 in

15%

Tue

17 Nov

67° 54°

0%0.02 in

46%

Wed

18 Nov

57° 45°

0%0.00 in

48%

Model spaghetti

Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.

Model maps around Washington D.C.

ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Washington D.C. on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.

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What each model says for Washington D.C.

Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.

Model	Today	Wed 4	Thu 5	Fri 6	Sat 7	Sun 8	Mon 9
Consensus	71°/48° · 0.00 in	74°/54° · 0.00 in	73°/64° · 0.14 in	69°/58° · 0.35 in	58°/48° · 0.00 in	60°/44° · 0.00 in	58°/46° · 0.00 in
ECMWF	71°/45° · 0.00 in	74°/53° · 0.00 in	75°/64° · 0.09 in	72°/59° · <0.01 in	58°/47° · 0.00 in	57°/44° · 0.00 in	58°/44° · 0.00 in
AIFS	72°/44° · 0.00 in	75°/52° · 0.02 in	73°/65° · 0.26 in	71°/60° · 0.06 in	60°/48° · 0.00 in	60°/44° · 0.00 in	64°/47° · 0.00 in
GFS	73°/45° · 0.00 in	74°/51° · 0.00 in	75°/58° · 0.09 in	65°/58° · 1.05 in	57°/49° · 0.00 in	61°/50° · 0.00 in	64°/49° · 0.00 in
ICON	73°/50° · 0.00 in	75°/54° · 0.00 in	74°/65° · 0.16 in	70°/58° · 0.06 in	59°/48° · 0.17 in	59°/39° · 0.00 in	60°/41° · 0.00 in
GEM	74°/44° · 0.00 in	77°/55° · 0.00 in	78°/65° · 0.05 in	69°/57° · 0.42 in	57°/45° · 0.00 in	62°/46° · 0.00 in	58°/42° · 0.00 in
JMA	69°/51° · 0.00 in	71°/56° · 0.00 in	73°/65° · 0.20 in	71°/60° · 0.49 in	60°/50° · 0.00 in	60°/45° · 0.00 in	57°/49° · 0.00 in
ARPEGE	71°/48° · 0.00 in	73°/54° · 0.00 in	69°/62° · 0.14 in	68°/57° · 0.35 in	59°/51° · 0.25 in	-	-
UKMO	69°/49° · 0.00 in	73°/56° · 0.00 in	71°/64° · 0.14 in	67°/60° · 0.01 in	58°/49° · 0.00 in	55°/44° · 0.00 in	55°/46° · 0.00 in
CMA	70°/51° · 0.00 in	72°/56° · 0.00 in	72°/63° · 0.17 in	67°/57° · 0.64 in	57°/47° · 0.00 in	-	-

Where the models disagree: Friday

Confidence is only 60/100. GFS brings 1.05 in of rain while ECMWF has <0.01 in; highs range from 65° (GFS) to 72° (ECMWF). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.