Today
4 Nov
32° 26°
0%0.0 mm
82%
9 weather models · one stack
Manila weather
National Capital Region, Philippines
14.59°, 121.00° · 13 m
Local time 09:15
Confidence 82%
Manila weather today: 9 models agree with high confidence on a high of 32°C and a low of 26°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Tomorrow: 33°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Next likely rain: Thursday 19 November (100% of models, ~10 mm).
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
33° 25°
0%0.0 mm
83%
Fri
6 Nov
33° 25°
0%0.0 mm
85%
Sat
7 Nov
32° 25°
22%0.2 mm
64%
Sun
8 Nov
32° 26°
13%0.0 mm
75%
Mon
9 Nov
32° 26°
43%0.3 mm
46%
Tue
10 Nov
30° 26°
43%0.6 mm
33%
Wed
11 Nov
31° 27°
20%0.0 mm
64%
Thu
12 Nov
31° 26°
0%0.0 mm
81%
Fri
13 Nov
31° 27°
20%0.0 mm
55%
Sat
14 Nov
32° 27°
0%0.0 mm
86%
Sun
15 Nov
33° 26°
0%0.0 mm
87%
Mon
16 Nov
33° 27°
0%0.0 mm
97%
Tue
17 Nov
33° 26°
0%0.0 mm
95%
Wed
18 Nov
33° 27°
33%0.6 mm
53%
Thu
19 Nov
32° 25°
100%10 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Manila
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Manila on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Manila
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 32°/26° · 0.0 mm | 33°/25° · 0.0 mm | 33°/25° · 0.0 mm | 32°/25° · 0.2 mm | 32°/26° · 0.0 mm | 32°/26° · 0.3 mm | 30°/26° · 0.6 mm |
| ECMWF | 34°/27° · 0.7 mm | 34°/26° · 0.0 mm | 35°/25° · 0.0 mm | 34°/25° · 0.3 mm | 34°/26° · 0.6 mm | 33°/26° · 1.5 mm | 32°/26° · 0.6 mm |
| AIFS | 33°/27° · 0.9 mm | 33°/27° · 0.0 mm | 33°/27° · 0.0 mm | 33°/27° · 1.2 mm | 32°/26° · 2.7 mm | 32°/27° · 3.9 mm | 31°/26° · 2.4 mm |
| GFS | 32°/24° · 0.0 mm | 32°/22° · 0.0 mm | 33°/22° · 0.0 mm | 32°/22° · 0.2 mm | 32°/22° · 0.0 mm | 32°/25° · 0.0 mm | 27°/24° · 13 mm |
| ICON | 34°/26° · 0.0 mm | 33°/22° · 0.0 mm | 33°/23° · 0.0 mm | 33°/24° · 0.0 mm | 32°/25° · 0.0 mm | 34°/25° · 0.0 mm | 32°/25° · 0.0 mm |
| GEM | 32°/26° · 0.0 mm | 32°/23° · 0.0 mm | 33°/23° · 0.0 mm | 32°/24° · 0.0 mm | 33°/27° · 0.0 mm | 32°/25° · 0.0 mm | 30°/27° · 0.0 mm |
| JMA | 31°/26° · 0.0 mm | 32°/26° · 0.0 mm | 32°/26° · 0.0 mm | 30°/27° · 1.2 mm | 31°/27° · 0.0 mm | 30°/27° · 0.3 mm | 30°/27° · 0.3 mm |
| ARPEGE | 32°/27° · 0.0 mm | 33°/26° · 0.0 mm | 33°/25° · 0.0 mm | 32°/26° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 33°/27° · 0.0 mm | 34°/25° · 0.0 mm | 33°/25° · 0.0 mm | 32°/26° · 0.6 mm | 32°/26° · 0.6 mm | 32°/26° · 11 mm | 30°/27° · 16 mm |
| CMA | 30°/24° · 0.0 mm | 31°/22° · 0.0 mm | 31°/22° · 0.0 mm | 32°/22° · 0.0 mm | 32°/24° · 0.0 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Tuesday
Confidence is only 33/100. UKMO brings 16 mm of rain while ICON has 0.0 mm; highs range from 27° (GFS) to 32° (ECMWF). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Manila weather: questions
Will it rain in Manila tomorrow?
Dry: no model shows rain. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.0 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 0.0 mm.
When will it rain next in Manila?
The next day most models agree on rain is Thursday 19 November: 100% of models, about 10 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Manila today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 34°C with 0.7 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 32°C with 0.0 mm. The median of all 9 models is 32°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Manila?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Manila forecast this week?
The least certain day is Tuesday (confidence 33/100): UKMO forecasts 16 mm of rain while ICON forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:15 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology