Today
4 Nov
29° 16°
22%0.3 mm
59%
9 weather models · one stack
Johannesburg weather
Gauteng, South Africa
-26.19°, 28.03° · 1749 m
Local time 03:18
Confidence 59%
Johannesburg weather today: 9 models agree with medium confidence on a high of 29°C and a low of 16°C. A chance of showers: 22% of models show rain, up to 7.6 mm. Tomorrow: 29°C. Rain expected: 89% of models agree, about 3.9 mm.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
29° 18°
89%3.9 mm
66%
Fri
6 Nov
30° 18°
78%3.0 mm
58%
Sat
7 Nov
27° 19°
67%2.9 mm
42%
Sun
8 Nov
23° 11°
71%4.2 mm
42%
Mon
9 Nov
20° 10°
29%0.3 mm
47%
Tue
10 Nov
28° 14°
17%0.3 mm
49%
Wed
11 Nov
31° 19°
20%0.0 mm
53%
Thu
12 Nov
32° 21°
0%0.0 mm
87%
Fri
13 Nov
30° 19°
0%0.3 mm
83%
Sat
14 Nov
27° 16°
75%5.0 mm
40%
Sun
15 Nov
25° 15°
33%0.9 mm
41%
Mon
16 Nov
27° 16°
100%7.2 mm
45%
Tue
17 Nov
22° 16°
67%8.4 mm
15%
Wed
18 Nov
26° 16°
100%3.3 mm
37%
Thu
19 Nov
26° 16°
100%1.2 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Johannesburg
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Johannesburg on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Johannesburg
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 29°/16° · 0.3 mm | 29°/18° · 3.9 mm | 30°/18° · 3.0 mm | 27°/19° · 2.9 mm | 23°/11° · 4.2 mm | 20°/10° · 0.3 mm | 28°/14° · 0.3 mm |
| ECMWF | 29°/16° · 0.1 mm | 28°/18° · 3.9 mm | 28°/17° · 3.6 mm | 27°/17° · 8.6 mm | 23°/12° · 4.2 mm | 19°/9° · 0.3 mm | 29°/14° · 0.6 mm |
| AIFS | 29°/16° · 0.3 mm | 31°/18° · 2.4 mm | 29°/18° · 3.6 mm | 25°/16° · 6.9 mm | 23°/10° · 3.9 mm | 21°/10° · 0.6 mm | 27°/13° · 0.6 mm |
| GFS | 31°/18° · 1.7 mm | 32°/20° · 1.6 mm | 32°/20° · 0.7 mm | 31°/20° · 0.1 mm | 21°/11° · 0.1 mm | 21°/10° · 0.0 mm | 30°/15° · 0.0 mm |
| ICON | 29°/15° · 0.9 mm | 28°/17° · 7.4 mm | 27°/16° · 5.6 mm | 27°/16° · 15 mm | 26°/9° · 0.9 mm | 20°/9° · 0.0 mm | 29°/11° · 0.0 mm |
| GEM | 31°/15° · 7.6 mm | 28°/15° · 6.9 mm | 29°/14° · 2.6 mm | 27°/15° · 2.9 mm | 27°/11° · 18 mm | 16°/9° · 1.2 mm | 24°/7° · 4.2 mm |
| JMA | 30°/18° · 0.3 mm | 30°/21° · 6.3 mm | 31°/17° · 6.3 mm | 30°/21° · 0.0 mm | 22°/14° · 21 mm | 20°/13° · 1.8 mm | 23°/15° · 0.0 mm |
| ARPEGE | 32°/17° · 0.0 mm | 32°/18° · 4.5 mm | 30°/18° · 0.6 mm | 25°/19° · 2.1 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 29°/17° · 0.3 mm | 29°/20° · 3.7 mm | 30°/20° · 3.0 mm | 28°/19° · 9.9 mm | 24°/12° · 21 mm | 21°/11° · 0.0 mm | - |
| CMA | 27°/16° · 0.9 mm | 29°/17° · 0.6 mm | 30°/18° · 1.2 mm | 30°/20° · 0.6 mm | - | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Saturday
Confidence is only 42/100. ICON brings 15 mm of rain while JMA has 0.0 mm; highs range from 25° (AIFS) to 31° (GFS). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Johannesburg weather: questions
Will it rain in Johannesburg tomorrow?
Rain expected: 89% of models agree, about 3.9 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 3.9 mm, ranging from 0.6 mm to 7.4 mm.
When will it rain next in Johannesburg?
The next day most models agree on rain is Thursday 5 November: 89% of models, about 3.9 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Johannesburg today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 29°C with 0.1 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 31°C with 1.7 mm. The median of all 9 models is 29°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Johannesburg?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Johannesburg forecast this week?
The least certain day is Saturday (confidence 42/100): ICON forecasts 15 mm of rain while JMA forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 00:58 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology