Today
4 Nov
31° 25°
0%0.0 mm
81%
9 weather models · one stack
Dar es Salaam weather
Dar es Salaam Region, Tanzania
-6.85°, 39.28° · 18 m
Local time 04:18
Confidence 81%
Dar es Salaam weather today: 9 models agree with high confidence on a high of 31°C and a low of 25°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Tomorrow: 31°C. A chance of showers: 22% of models show rain, up to 2.1 mm. Next likely rain: Friday 13 November (50% of models, ~4.6 mm).
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
31° 25°
22%0.0 mm
59%
Fri
6 Nov
31° 26°
11%0.0 mm
72%
Sat
7 Nov
31° 25°
11%0.0 mm
75%
Sun
8 Nov
32° 25°
0%0.0 mm
80%
Mon
9 Nov
32° 26°
14%0.0 mm
66%
Tue
10 Nov
32° 25°
17%0.0 mm
55%
Wed
11 Nov
31° 26°
40%0.4 mm
46%
Thu
12 Nov
31° 26°
40%0.6 mm
41%
Fri
13 Nov
30° 27°
50%4.6 mm
26%
Sat
14 Nov
29° 26°
100%11 mm
81%
Sun
15 Nov
29° 25°
100%15 mm
93%
Mon
16 Nov
30° 25°
67%1.1 mm
31%
Tue
17 Nov
29° 25°
100%5.4 mm
72%
Wed
18 Nov
31° 25°
50%5.4 mm
10%
Thu
19 Nov
33° 24°
0%0.0 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Dar es Salaam
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Dar es Salaam on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Dar es Salaam
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 31°/25° · 0.0 mm | 31°/25° · 0.0 mm | 31°/26° · 0.0 mm | 31°/25° · 0.0 mm | 32°/25° · 0.0 mm | 32°/26° · 0.0 mm | 32°/25° · 0.0 mm |
| ECMWF | 31°/25° · 0.2 mm | 31°/25° · 2.1 mm | 31°/26° · 0.0 mm | 32°/25° · 0.0 mm | 32°/25° · 0.0 mm | 32°/26° · 0.9 mm | 31°/26° · 0.2 mm |
| AIFS | 30°/25° · 0.6 mm | 30°/26° · 1.2 mm | 30°/26° · 1.2 mm | 30°/26° · 1.2 mm | 31°/26° · 0.6 mm | 31°/26° · 1.2 mm | 31°/26° · 1.2 mm |
| GFS | 34°/24° · 0.0 mm | 34°/25° · 0.0 mm | 33°/25° · 0.0 mm | 33°/25° · 0.0 mm | 33°/25° · 0.0 mm | 34°/25° · 0.0 mm | 35°/24° · 0.0 mm |
| ICON | 33°/24° · 0.0 mm | 34°/25° · 0.0 mm | 34°/25° · 0.0 mm | 33°/23° · 0.0 mm | 35°/23° · 0.0 mm | 35°/24° · 0.0 mm | 36°/23° · 0.0 mm |
| GEM | 31°/24° · 0.0 mm | 31°/24° · 0.1 mm | 31°/23° · 0.0 mm | 31°/23° · 0.0 mm | 32°/22° · 0.0 mm | 32°/24° · 0.0 mm | 32°/23° · 0.0 mm |
| JMA | 30°/26° · 0.0 mm | 31°/27° · 0.0 mm | 31°/26° · 0.0 mm | 31°/27° · 0.0 mm | 31°/27° · 0.0 mm | 31°/26° · 0.0 mm | 31°/27° · 0.0 mm |
| ARPEGE | 31°/27° · 0.0 mm | 31°/27° · 0.0 mm | 31°/27° · 0.0 mm | 31°/27° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 31°/26° · 0.8 mm | 32°/25° · 0.2 mm | 32°/26° · 0.0 mm | 32°/26° · 0.0 mm | 32°/24° · 0.3 mm | 32°/26° · 0.0 mm | - |
| CMA | 30°/24° · 0.0 mm | 31°/25° · 0.0 mm | 30°/24° · 0.0 mm | 31°/25° · 0.0 mm | 30°/24° · 0.0 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Tuesday
Confidence is only 55/100. AIFS brings 1.2 mm of rain while GFS has 0.0 mm; highs range from 31° (AIFS) to 36° (ICON). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Dar es Salaam weather: questions
Will it rain in Dar es Salaam tomorrow?
A chance of showers: 22% of models show rain, up to 2.1 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.0 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 2.1 mm.
When will it rain next in Dar es Salaam?
The next day most models agree on rain is Friday 13 November: 50% of models, about 4.6 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Dar es Salaam today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 31°C with 0.2 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 34°C with 0.0 mm. The median of all 9 models is 31°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Dar es Salaam?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Dar es Salaam forecast this week?
The least certain day is Tuesday (confidence 55/100): AIFS forecasts 1.2 mm of rain while GFS forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 00:49 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology