Today
4 Nov
26° 16°
56%1.2 mm
44%
9 weather models · one stack
Nairobi weather
Nairobi County, Kenya
-1.30°, 36.82° · 1677 m
Local time 04:16
Confidence 44%
Nairobi weather today: 9 models agree with low confidence on a high of 26°C and a low of 16°C. Rain expected: 56% of models agree, about 1.2 mm. Tomorrow: 26°C. A chance of showers: 44% of models show rain, up to 12 mm.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
26° 17°
44%0.6 mm
33%
Fri
6 Nov
26° 16°
67%1.1 mm
42%
Sat
7 Nov
26° 17°
56%1.6 mm
28%
Sun
8 Nov
27° 17°
50%0.9 mm
33%
Mon
9 Nov
28° 17°
57%1.2 mm
45%
Tue
10 Nov
27° 17°
83%2.9 mm
59%
Wed
11 Nov
26° 17°
100%7.8 mm
77%
Thu
12 Nov
23° 17°
100%15 mm
75%
Fri
13 Nov
23° 17°
100%18 mm
78%
Sat
14 Nov
23° 17°
100%16 mm
79%
Sun
15 Nov
23° 17°
100%11 mm
64%
Mon
16 Nov
25° 16°
100%15 mm
58%
Tue
17 Nov
23° 16°
100%6.2 mm
82%
Wed
18 Nov
25° 17°
100%4.4 mm
66%
Thu
19 Nov
25° 16°
100%5.9 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Nairobi
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Nairobi on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
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What each model says for Nairobi
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 26°/16° · 1.2 mm | 26°/17° · 0.6 mm | 26°/16° · 1.1 mm | 26°/17° · 1.6 mm | 27°/17° · 0.9 mm | 28°/17° · 1.2 mm | 27°/17° · 2.9 mm |
| ECMWF | 26°/15° · 2.8 mm | 22°/16° · 11 mm | 23°/16° · 4.9 mm | 24°/16° · 2.8 mm | 24°/16° · 5.2 mm | 25°/16° · 2.3 mm | 23°/16° · 2.4 mm |
| AIFS | 28°/18° · 1.6 mm | 27°/18° · 2.4 mm | 27°/18° · 2.4 mm | 27°/18° · 3.0 mm | 28°/18° · 2.4 mm | 29°/18° · 1.8 mm | 28°/19° · 3.8 mm |
| GFS | 28°/17° · 0.2 mm | 28°/17° · 0.0 mm | 28°/17° · 0.0 mm | 20°/17° · 2.8 mm | 28°/16° · 0.2 mm | 28°/17° · 0.7 mm | 27°/17° · 1.1 mm |
| ICON | 26°/17° · 1.4 mm | 25°/17° · 0.0 mm | 25°/17° · 1.1 mm | 26°/17° · 0.3 mm | 28°/17° · 0.6 mm | 28°/18° · 0.4 mm | 27°/18° · 3.3 mm |
| GEM | 26°/16° · 0.3 mm | 26°/16° · 1.9 mm | 26°/16° · 1.5 mm | 27°/15° · 0.0 mm | 27°/16° · 0.3 mm | 27°/17° · 13 mm | 25°/17° · 10 mm |
| JMA | 26°/18° · 1.2 mm | 25°/17° · 0.0 mm | 27°/17° · 0.4 mm | 26°/17° · 1.6 mm | 27°/17° · 1.2 mm | 28°/18° · 0.4 mm | 28°/18° · 0.2 mm |
| ARPEGE | 27°/16° · 0.6 mm | 27°/17° · 0.6 mm | 27°/16° · 1.1 mm | 27°/17° · 0.5 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 27°/16° · 1.6 mm | 24°/16° · 12 mm | 22°/16° · 11 mm | 25°/16° · 3.0 mm | 25°/16° · 1.9 mm | 27°/17° · 1.2 mm | - |
| CMA | 25°/16° · 0.0 mm | 26°/16° · 0.0 mm | 25°/16° · 0.0 mm | 27°/17° · 0.0 mm | 27°/17° · 0.0 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Saturday
Confidence is only 28/100. AIFS brings 3.0 mm of rain while GEM has 0.0 mm; highs range from 20° (GFS) to 27° (ARPEGE). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Nairobi weather: questions
Will it rain in Nairobi tomorrow?
A chance of showers: 44% of models show rain, up to 12 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.6 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 12 mm.
When will it rain next in Nairobi?
The next day most models agree on rain is Wednesday 4 November: 56% of models, about 1.2 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Nairobi today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 26°C with 2.8 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 28°C with 0.2 mm. The median of all 9 models is 26°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Nairobi?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Nairobi forecast this week?
The least certain day is Saturday (confidence 28/100): AIFS forecasts 3.0 mm of rain while GEM forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 00:49 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology