Today
4 Nov
28° 18°
100%8.8 mm
76%
9 weather models · one stack
Antananarivo weather
Analamanga Region, Madagascar
-18.95°, 47.53° · 1274 m
Local time 04:19
Confidence 76%
Antananarivo weather today: 9 models agree with high confidence on a high of 28°C and a low of 18°C. Rain expected: 100% of models agree, about 8.8 mm. Tomorrow: 27°C. Dry: only 11% of models show rain.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
27° 16°
11%0.2 mm
68%
Fri
6 Nov
27° 16°
0%0.0 mm
80%
Sat
7 Nov
29° 15°
0%0.0 mm
85%
Sun
8 Nov
29° 14°
13%0.0 mm
59%
Mon
9 Nov
28° 17°
57%2.1 mm
10%
Tue
10 Nov
25° 17°
67%6.0 mm
30%
Wed
11 Nov
26° 16°
60%4.2 mm
36%
Thu
12 Nov
27° 17°
80%5.8 mm
41%
Fri
13 Nov
26° 17°
100%6.2 mm
57%
Sat
14 Nov
27° 17°
75%6.6 mm
52%
Sun
15 Nov
27° 17°
100%4.4 mm
88%
Mon
16 Nov
25° 16°
67%5.6 mm
35%
Tue
17 Nov
25° 16°
100%9.4 mm
54%
Wed
18 Nov
26° 17°
100%11 mm
67%
Thu
19 Nov
25° 14°
100%2.4 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Antananarivo
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Antananarivo on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
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What each model says for Antananarivo
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 28°/18° · 8.8 mm | 27°/16° · 0.2 mm | 27°/16° · 0.0 mm | 29°/15° · 0.0 mm | 29°/14° · 0.0 mm | 28°/17° · 2.1 mm | 25°/17° · 6.0 mm |
| ECMWF | 27°/18° · 8.5 mm | 26°/15° · 0.0 mm | 26°/14° · 0.0 mm | 28°/16° · 0.0 mm | 30°/14° · 0.0 mm | 28°/16° · 3.6 mm | 29°/16° · 7.2 mm |
| AIFS | 26°/18° · 8.8 mm | 27°/17° · 0.4 mm | 27°/16° · 0.0 mm | 28°/16° · 0.0 mm | 27°/16° · 2.6 mm | 25°/18° · 18 mm | 24°/17° · 23 mm |
| GFS | 29°/17° · 5.6 mm | 28°/16° · 0.4 mm | 30°/13° · 0.0 mm | 30°/12° · 0.0 mm | 33°/13° · 0.0 mm | 33°/17° · 2.1 mm | 26°/17° · 11 mm |
| ICON | 29°/18° · 8.9 mm | 28°/17° · 0.0 mm | 29°/16° · 0.0 mm | 29°/15° · 0.0 mm | 30°/16° · 0.0 mm | 30°/19° · 44 mm | 25°/18° · 4.8 mm |
| GEM | 30°/16° · 9.9 mm | 27°/16° · 0.2 mm | 29°/13° · 0.0 mm | 29°/14° · 0.0 mm | 30°/14° · 0.0 mm | 29°/16° · 0.0 mm | 27°/15° · 0.0 mm |
| JMA | 26°/19° · 14 mm | 24°/18° · 0.0 mm | 27°/17° · 0.0 mm | 29°/16° · 0.0 mm | 29°/19° · 0.0 mm | 23°/17° · 0.0 mm | 21°/17° · 0.0 mm |
| ARPEGE | 29°/19° · 2.5 mm | 27°/18° · 1.5 mm | 29°/17° · 0.0 mm | 29°/17° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 27°/18° · 3.3 mm | 25°/16° · 0.2 mm | 27°/16° · 0.0 mm | 27°/15° · 0.0 mm | 26°/14° · 0.0 mm | 25°/15° · 0.0 mm | - |
| CMA | 28°/17° · 21 mm | 25°/16° · 0.9 mm | 26°/15° · 0.0 mm | 28°/14° · 0.0 mm | 29°/14° · 0.0 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Monday
Confidence is only 10/100. ICON brings 44 mm of rain while GEM has 0.0 mm; highs range from 23° (JMA) to 33° (GFS). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Antananarivo weather: questions
Will it rain in Antananarivo tomorrow?
Dry: only 11% of models show rain. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.2 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 1.5 mm.
When will it rain next in Antananarivo?
The next day most models agree on rain is Wednesday 4 November: 100% of models, about 8.8 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Antananarivo today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 27°C with 8.5 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 29°C with 5.6 mm. The median of all 9 models is 28°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Antananarivo?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Antananarivo forecast this week?
The least certain day is Monday (confidence 10/100): ICON forecasts 44 mm of rain while GEM forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 00:58 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology