Today
4 Nov
16° 12°
100%15 mm
87%
9 weather models · one stack
Marseille weather
Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, France
43.27°, 5.38° · 30 m
Local time 02:15
Confidence 87%
Marseille weather today: 9 models agree with high confidence on a high of 16°C and a low of 12°C. Rain expected: 100% of models agree, about 15 mm. Tomorrow: 17°C. Rain expected: 89% of models agree, about 6.2 mm.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
17° 14°
89%6.2 mm
73%
Fri
6 Nov
16° 12°
100%4.1 mm
83%
Sat
7 Nov
16° 11°
0%0.1 mm
88%
Sun
8 Nov
17° 14°
71%2.2 mm
63%
Mon
9 Nov
18° 15°
71%1.8 mm
58%
Tue
10 Nov
20° 17°
100%7.0 mm
90%
Wed
11 Nov
19° 16°
100%8.4 mm
91%
Thu
12 Nov
19° 15°
20%0.2 mm
57%
Fri
13 Nov
18° 14°
50%0.7 mm
23%
Sat
14 Nov
19° 13°
50%0.6 mm
23%
Sun
15 Nov
16° 12°
33%0.0 mm
51%
Mon
16 Nov
15° 10°
0%0.0 mm
89%
Tue
17 Nov
16° 12°
33%0.0 mm
42%
Wed
18 Nov
16° 13°
0%0.0 mm
64%
Thu
19 Nov
15° 12°
0%0.0 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Marseille
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Marseille on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
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What each model says for Marseille
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 16°/12° · 15 mm | 17°/14° · 6.2 mm | 16°/12° · 4.1 mm | 16°/11° · 0.1 mm | 17°/14° · 2.2 mm | 18°/15° · 1.8 mm | 20°/17° · 7.0 mm |
| ECMWF | 15°/11° · 15 mm | 15°/14° · 23 mm | 16°/11° · 1.0 mm | 15°/9° · 0.1 mm | 16°/14° · 1.7 mm | 17°/15° · 1.2 mm | 19°/17° · 3.4 mm |
| AIFS | 16°/14° · 25 mm | 17°/15° · 12 mm | 17°/14° · 5.8 mm | 17°/11° · 0.0 mm | 17°/14° · 5.0 mm | 18°/16° · 7.8 mm | 20°/18° · 7.0 mm |
| GFS | 16°/13° · 20 mm | 16°/15° · 6.2 mm | 16°/14° · 2.1 mm | 16°/13° · 0.0 mm | 17°/14° · 0.1 mm | 17°/16° · 1.8 mm | 19°/16° · 2.3 mm |
| ICON | 16°/12° · 23 mm | 18°/14° · 7.0 mm | 15°/11° · 9.0 mm | 16°/11° · 0.3 mm | 17°/14° · 6.3 mm | 18°/15° · 11 mm | 20°/18° · 34 mm |
| GEM | 15°/11° · 1.9 mm | 17°/14° · 1.4 mm | 15°/12° · 18 mm | 15°/7° · 0.1 mm | 15°/12° · 2.9 mm | 19°/15° · 0.9 mm | 20°/18° · 43 mm |
| JMA | 14°/11° · 14 mm | 17°/13° · 0.0 mm | 15°/12° · 5.8 mm | 15°/11° · 0.2 mm | 16°/13° · 2.2 mm | 18°/14° · 7.6 mm | 21°/16° · 7.0 mm |
| ARPEGE | 16°/13° · 16 mm | 18°/15° · 4.7 mm | 19°/12° · 1.9 mm | 17°/10° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 14°/12° · 13 mm | 17°/13° · 2.7 mm | 16°/10° · 1.3 mm | 17°/9° · 0.0 mm | 17°/14° · 0.6 mm | 20°/17° · 0.0 mm | - |
| CMA | 16°/10° · 8.8 mm | 17°/12° · 7.3 mm | 17°/12° · 4.1 mm | 16°/11° · 0.2 mm | - | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Monday
Confidence is only 58/100. ICON brings 11 mm of rain while UKMO has 0.0 mm; highs range from 17° (ECMWF) to 20° (UKMO). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Marseille weather: questions
Will it rain in Marseille tomorrow?
Rain expected: 89% of models agree, about 6.2 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 6.2 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 23 mm.
When will it rain next in Marseille?
The next day most models agree on rain is Wednesday 4 November: 100% of models, about 15 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Marseille today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 15°C with 15 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 16°C with 20 mm. The median of all 9 models is 16°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Marseille?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Marseille forecast this week?
The least certain day is Monday (confidence 58/100): ICON forecasts 11 mm of rain while UKMO forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:15 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology