Today
3 Nov
13° 10°
100%6.4 mm
90%
9 weather models · one stack
Montreal weather
Quebec, Canada
45.52°, -73.61° · 226 m
Local time 20:16
Confidence 90%
Montreal weather today: 9 models agree with high confidence on a high of 13°C and a low of 10°C. Rain expected: 100% of models agree, about 6.4 mm. Tomorrow: 18°C. Dry: no model shows rain.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Wed
4 Nov
18° 12°
0%0.0 mm
73%
Thu
5 Nov
16° 11°
100%5.4 mm
84%
Fri
6 Nov
14° 8°
22%0.3 mm
62%
Sat
7 Nov
8° 4°
78%4.6 mm
52%
Sun
8 Nov
8° 4°
71%2.7 mm
58%
Mon
9 Nov
7° 3°
43%0.6 mm
55%
Tue
10 Nov
6° 2°
67%1.2 mm
28%
Wed
11 Nov
5° 1°
20%0.4 mm
77%
Thu
12 Nov
3° -1°
0%0.0 mm
47%
Fri
13 Nov
6° -1°
25%0.0 mm
40%
Sat
14 Nov
5° 1°
67%1.0 mm
15%
Sun
15 Nov
8° 2°
33%0.6 mm
15%
Mon
16 Nov
8° 7°
67%1.2 mm
15%
Tue
17 Nov
12° 6°
67%1.2 mm
15%
Wed
18 Nov
8° 2°
50%0.7 mm
26%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Montreal
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Montreal on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Montreal
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Wed 4 | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 13°/10° · 6.4 mm | 18°/12° · 0.0 mm | 16°/11° · 5.4 mm | 14°/8° · 0.3 mm | 8°/4° · 4.6 mm | 8°/4° · 2.7 mm | 7°/3° · 0.6 mm |
| ECMWF | 12°/9° · 4.8 mm | 18°/11° · 0.0 mm | 16°/10° · 4.3 mm | 14°/9° · 0.0 mm | 10°/5° · 18 mm | 8°/4° · 8.2 mm | 7°/2° · 0.0 mm |
| AIFS | 12°/10° · 6.6 mm | 20°/12° · 0.6 mm | 16°/11° · 7.2 mm | 15°/8° · 1.0 mm | 10°/7° · 8.6 mm | 6°/5° · 6.2 mm | 6°/4° · 2.2 mm |
| GFS | 13°/11° · 1.2 mm | 17°/12° · 0.0 mm | 16°/11° · 4.9 mm | 16°/11° · 0.0 mm | 11°/5° · 3.5 mm | 10°/5° · 0.0 mm | 6°/4° · 0.0 mm |
| ICON | 13°/11° · 15 mm | 19°/12° · 0.0 mm | 18°/12° · 6.8 mm | 13°/7° · 0.4 mm | 6°/4° · 1.9 mm | 8°/4° · 0.0 mm | 7°/0° · 0.0 mm |
| GEM | 13°/11° · 7.1 mm | 20°/12° · 0.0 mm | 17°/12° · 5.4 mm | 14°/8° · 0.3 mm | 8°/3° · 0.9 mm | 7°/3° · 2.7 mm | 7°/1° · 3.3 mm |
| JMA | 13°/10° · 6.4 mm | 20°/12° · 0.2 mm | 17°/12° · 4.8 mm | 16°/9° · 0.0 mm | 10°/6° · 4.6 mm | 8°/5° · 2.6 mm | 7°/3° · 0.6 mm |
| ARPEGE | 13°/10° · 3.5 mm | 16°/11° · 0.0 mm | 14°/11° · 5.6 mm | 13°/7° · 2.4 mm | 6°/4° · 0.6 mm | - | - |
| UKMO | 13°/10° · 6.5 mm | 16°/11° · 0.1 mm | 15°/12° · 5.3 mm | 12°/8° · 0.3 mm | 8°/3° · 4.6 mm | 7°/3° · 6.8 mm | 6°/4° · 1.8 mm |
| CMA | 11°/6° · 5.7 mm | 16°/10° · 0.0 mm | 17°/10° · 11 mm | 13°/6° · 0.0 mm | 6°/4° · 4.8 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Saturday
Confidence is only 52/100. ECMWF brings 18 mm of rain while ARPEGE has 0.6 mm; highs range from 6° (ICON) to 11° (GFS). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Montreal weather: questions
Will it rain in Montreal tomorrow?
Dry: no model shows rain. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.0 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 0.6 mm.
When will it rain next in Montreal?
The next day most models agree on rain is Tuesday 3 November: 100% of models, about 6.4 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Montreal today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 12°C with 4.8 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 13°C with 1.2 mm. The median of all 9 models is 13°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Montreal?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Montreal forecast this week?
The least certain day is Saturday (confidence 52/100): ECMWF forecasts 18 mm of rain while ARPEGE forecasts 0.6 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:16 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology