Today
3 Nov
67° 50°
0%0.00 in
77%
9 weather models · one stack
New York weather
New York, United States
40.74°, -74.04° · 37 m
Local time 20:19
Confidence 77%
New York weather today: 9 models agree with high confidence on a high of 67°F and a low of 50°F. Dry: no model shows rain. Tomorrow: 69°F. Dry: no model shows rain. Next likely rain: Thursday 5 November (67% of models, ~0.04 in).
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Wed
4 Nov
69° 54°
0%0.00 in
75%
Thu
5 Nov
69° 60°
67%0.04 in
42%
Fri
6 Nov
66° 60°
78%0.26 in
57%
Sat
7 Nov
62° 51°
22%<0.01 in
61%
Sun
8 Nov
57° 48°
14%0.00 in
72%
Mon
9 Nov
57° 46°
0%0.00 in
80%
Tue
10 Nov
60° 44°
0%0.00 in
69%
Wed
11 Nov
56° 45°
0%0.00 in
78%
Thu
12 Nov
49° 39°
0%0.00 in
62%
Fri
13 Nov
51° 44°
0%0.00 in
45%
Sat
14 Nov
62° 40°
0%0.00 in
47%
Sun
15 Nov
58° 48°
0%0.00 in
45%
Mon
16 Nov
64° 51°
33%0.00 in
15%
Tue
17 Nov
65° 52°
67%0.05 in
15%
Wed
18 Nov
56° 45°
0%<0.01 in
50%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around New York
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over New York on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for New York
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Wed 4 | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 67°/50° · 0.00 in | 69°/54° · 0.00 in | 69°/60° · 0.04 in | 66°/60° · 0.26 in | 62°/51° · <0.01 in | 57°/48° · 0.00 in | 57°/46° · 0.00 in |
| ECMWF | 70°/47° · 0.00 in | 72°/53° · 0.00 in | 76°/59° · 0.10 in | 71°/62° · 0.06 in | 65°/49° · <0.01 in | 59°/46° · 0.00 in | 57°/42° · 0.04 in |
| AIFS | 67°/48° · 0.00 in | 73°/52° · 0.00 in | 70°/61° · 0.18 in | 68°/60° · 0.26 in | 61°/51° · <0.01 in | 58°/48° · 0.00 in | 58°/47° · 0.00 in |
| GFS | 70°/50° · 0.00 in | 70°/52° · 0.00 in | 69°/54° · 0.04 in | 64°/61° · 2.94 in | 60°/49° · 0.00 in | 57°/48° · 0.00 in | 60°/48° · 0.00 in |
| ICON | 69°/51° · 0.00 in | 68°/55° · 0.00 in | 67°/61° · 0.01 in | 71°/62° · 0.00 in | 65°/51° · 0.06 in | 58°/45° · 0.00 in | 60°/45° · 0.00 in |
| GEM | 68°/49° · 0.00 in | 69°/54° · 0.00 in | 73°/60° · 0.02 in | 64°/58° · 1.77 in | 62°/52° · 0.11 in | 57°/49° · 0.11 in | 55°/46° · 0.00 in |
| JMA | 62°/53° · 0.00 in | 63°/56° · 0.00 in | 65°/60° · 0.14 in | 66°/60° · 0.37 in | 63°/51° · <0.01 in | 54°/48° · 0.00 in | 55°/50° · 0.00 in |
| ARPEGE | 67°/50° · 0.00 in | 70°/54° · 0.00 in | 66°/56° · 0.04 in | 65°/60° · 0.13 in | 63°/56° · 0.00 in | - | - |
| UKMO | 63°/50° · 0.00 in | 66°/55° · 0.00 in | 67°/61° · 0.10 in | 68°/61° · 0.00 in | 60°/52° · 0.00 in | 54°/47° · 0.00 in | 54°/44° · 0.00 in |
| CMA | 64°/47° · 0.00 in | 67°/53° · 0.00 in | 70°/58° · 0.04 in | 64°/55° · 1.15 in | 58°/46° · 0.01 in | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Thursday
Confidence is only 42/100. AIFS brings 0.18 in of rain while ICON has 0.01 in; highs range from 65° (JMA) to 76° (ECMWF). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
New York weather: questions
Will it rain in New York tomorrow?
Dry: no model shows rain. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.00 in, ranging from 0.00 in to 0.00 in.
When will it rain next in New York?
The next day most models agree on rain is Thursday 5 November: 67% of models, about 0.04 in.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for New York today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 70°F with 0.00 in of rain; GFS (the American model) says 70°F with 0.00 in. The median of all 9 models is 67°F.
Which weather model is most accurate for New York?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the New York forecast this week?
The least certain day is Thursday (confidence 42/100): AIFS forecasts 0.18 in of rain while ICON forecasts 0.01 in.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:18 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology