Today
3 Nov
10° 4°
100%12 mm
74%
9 weather models · one stack
Québec weather
Quebec, Canada
46.78°, -71.24° · 55 m
Local time 20:14
Confidence 74%
Québec weather today: 9 models agree with high confidence on a high of 10°C and a low of 4°C. Rain expected: 100% of models agree, about 12 mm. Tomorrow: 14°C. Rain expected: 100% of models agree, about 12 mm.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Wed
4 Nov
14° 5°
100%12 mm
73%
Thu
5 Nov
15° 8°
100%4.4 mm
80%
Fri
6 Nov
14° 9°
22%0.5 mm
63%
Sat
7 Nov
8° 4°
78%2.2 mm
62%
Sun
8 Nov
6° 4°
71%4.0 mm
62%
Mon
9 Nov
7° 3°
43%0.9 mm
51%
Tue
10 Nov
5° 1°
67%1.4 mm
58%
Wed
11 Nov
5° -1°
0%0.2 mm
93%
Thu
12 Nov
3° -1°
0%0.0 mm
56%
Fri
13 Nov
4° -2°
25%0.3 mm
48%
Sat
14 Nov
4° 0°
0%0.0 mm
54%
Sun
15 Nov
5° 0°
33%0.6 mm
23%
Mon
16 Nov
9° 3°
67%2.4 mm
22%
Tue
17 Nov
8° 5°
67%2.8 mm
15%
Wed
18 Nov
9° 2°
50%1.4 mm
31%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Québec
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Québec on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
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What each model says for Québec
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Wed 4 | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 10°/4° · 12 mm | 14°/5° · 12 mm | 15°/8° · 4.4 mm | 14°/9° · 0.5 mm | 8°/4° · 2.2 mm | 6°/4° · 4.0 mm | 7°/3° · 0.9 mm |
| ECMWF | 9°/4° · 11 mm | 18°/4° · 8.3 mm | 15°/7° · 3.1 mm | 14°/9° · 0.0 mm | 8°/5° · 0.7 mm | 6°/4° · 11 mm | 7°/3° · 0.0 mm |
| AIFS | 10°/4° · 11 mm | 15°/7° · 10 mm | 15°/9° · 5.8 mm | 14°/10° · 1.8 mm | 9°/5° · 3.2 mm | 6°/4° · 7.0 mm | 6°/3° · 2.0 mm |
| GFS | 9°/4° · 11 mm | 13°/5° · 12 mm | 12°/8° · 1.1 mm | 15°/9° · 0.0 mm | 9°/4° · 22 mm | 6°/4° · 0.6 mm | 7°/4° · 0.6 mm |
| ICON | 10°/5° · 12 mm | 14°/6° · 12 mm | 14°/8° · 4.4 mm | 13°/9° · 0.5 mm | 8°/5° · 2.2 mm | 7°/3° · 0.0 mm | 7°/2° · 0.0 mm |
| GEM | 10°/5° · 15 mm | 14°/6° · 15 mm | 15°/7° · 3.7 mm | 14°/7° · 0.8 mm | 6°/2° · 5.2 mm | 7°/4° · 1.3 mm | 6°/2° · 5.8 mm |
| JMA | 9°/7° · 15 mm | 15°/7° · 13 mm | 15°/9° · 5.2 mm | 15°/9° · 0.2 mm | 9°/5° · 1.6 mm | 8°/4° · 4.0 mm | 8°/4° · 2.2 mm |
| ARPEGE | 10°/4° · 18 mm | 11°/5° · 11 mm | 12°/6° · 5.7 mm | 12°/7° · 4.4 mm | 7°/4° · 4.6 mm | - | - |
| UKMO | 10°/4° · 12 mm | 13°/4° · 13 mm | 16°/8° · 4.4 mm | 14°/8° · 0.6 mm | 7°/3° · 1.0 mm | 6°/3° · 6.8 mm | 8°/4° · 0.9 mm |
| CMA | 5°/2° · 12 mm | 14°/5° · 16 mm | 14°/8° · 6.0 mm | 12°/7° · 0.0 mm | 6°/4° · 0.1 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Monday
Confidence is only 51/100. GEM brings 5.8 mm of rain while ECMWF has 0.0 mm; highs range from 6° (AIFS) to 8° (JMA). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Québec weather: questions
Will it rain in Québec tomorrow?
Rain expected: 100% of models agree, about 12 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 12 mm, ranging from 8.3 mm to 16 mm.
When will it rain next in Québec?
The next day most models agree on rain is Tuesday 3 November: 100% of models, about 12 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Québec today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 9°C with 11 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 9°C with 11 mm. The median of all 9 models is 10°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Québec?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Québec forecast this week?
The least certain day is Monday (confidence 51/100): GEM forecasts 5.8 mm of rain while ECMWF forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:14 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology