Today
4 Nov
18° 12°
44%0.8 mm
46%
9 weather models · one stack
Adelaide weather
South Australia, Australia
-34.90°, 138.54° · 48 m
Local time 11:44
Confidence 46%
Adelaide weather today: 9 models agree with medium confidence on a high of 18°C and a low of 12°C. A chance of showers: 44% of models show rain, up to 1.6 mm. Tomorrow: 18°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Next likely rain: Wednesday 11 November (60% of models, ~1.3 mm).
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
18° 11°
0%0.0 mm
83%
Fri
6 Nov
21° 11°
0%0.0 mm
81%
Sat
7 Nov
18° 11°
0%0.0 mm
86%
Sun
8 Nov
21° 9°
0%0.0 mm
88%
Mon
9 Nov
28° 14°
14%0.0 mm
57%
Tue
10 Nov
22° 14°
14%0.6 mm
36%
Wed
11 Nov
16° 13°
60%1.3 mm
46%
Thu
12 Nov
18° 12°
60%1.1 mm
33%
Fri
13 Nov
21° 12°
20%0.0 mm
52%
Sat
14 Nov
20° 13°
0%0.3 mm
58%
Sun
15 Nov
22° 11°
0%0.6 mm
79%
Mon
16 Nov
21° 10°
0%0.1 mm
80%
Tue
17 Nov
22° 10°
67%1.7 mm
15%
Wed
18 Nov
27° 9°
33%0.0 mm
22%
Thu
19 Nov
28° 12°
0%0.0 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Adelaide
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Adelaide on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Adelaide
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 18°/12° · 0.8 mm | 18°/11° · 0.0 mm | 21°/11° · 0.0 mm | 18°/11° · 0.0 mm | 21°/9° · 0.0 mm | 28°/14° · 0.0 mm | 22°/14° · 0.6 mm |
| ECMWF | 18°/13° · 0.4 mm | 18°/13° · 0.0 mm | 21°/11° · 0.4 mm | 18°/11° · 0.0 mm | 21°/9° · 0.0 mm | 29°/14° · 0.0 mm | 26°/15° · 0.0 mm |
| AIFS | 20°/12° · 1.2 mm | 20°/10° · 0.0 mm | 22°/10° · 0.1 mm | 18°/9° · 0.5 mm | 22°/8° · 0.0 mm | 27°/13° · 0.6 mm | 21°/12° · 0.6 mm |
| GFS | 18°/10° · 1.3 mm | 19°/9° · 0.0 mm | 22°/11° · 0.0 mm | 19°/10° · 0.0 mm | 22°/8° · 0.0 mm | 28°/10° · 0.0 mm | 31°/15° · 0.5 mm |
| ICON | 18°/12° · 0.6 mm | 18°/11° · 0.0 mm | 21°/9° · 0.0 mm | 18°/11° · 0.0 mm | 21°/10° · 0.0 mm | 28°/16° · 0.0 mm | 25°/15° · 0.0 mm |
| GEM | 18°/12° · 0.8 mm | 18°/11° · 0.0 mm | 21°/9° · 0.0 mm | 17°/10° · 0.0 mm | 21°/9° · 0.0 mm | 24°/13° · 0.0 mm | 21°/14° · 0.6 mm |
| JMA | 16°/14° · 0.6 mm | 16°/14° · 0.0 mm | 18°/15° · 0.0 mm | 15°/13° · 0.0 mm | 21°/12° · 0.0 mm | 24°/18° · 1.2 mm | 22°/14° · 0.6 mm |
| ARPEGE | 19°/13° · 1.2 mm | 19°/11° · 0.0 mm | 21°/12° · 0.4 mm | 18°/12° · 0.2 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 18°/12° · 1.6 mm | 18°/7° · 0.0 mm | 22°/10° · 0.0 mm | 17°/11° · 0.0 mm | 21°/9° · 0.6 mm | 29°/15° · 0.0 mm | 22°/13° · 1.2 mm |
| CMA | 18°/14° · 0.3 mm | 19°/12° · 0.0 mm | 22°/13° · 0.0 mm | 18°/11° · 0.0 mm | 23°/10° · 0.0 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Tuesday
Confidence is only 36/100. UKMO brings 1.2 mm of rain while ECMWF has 0.0 mm; highs range from 21° (AIFS) to 31° (GFS). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Adelaide weather: questions
Will it rain in Adelaide tomorrow?
Dry: no model shows rain. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.0 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 0.0 mm.
When will it rain next in Adelaide?
The next day most models agree on rain is Wednesday 11 November: 60% of models, about 1.3 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Adelaide today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 18°C with 0.4 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 18°C with 1.3 mm. The median of all 9 models is 18°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Adelaide?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Adelaide forecast this week?
The least certain day is Tuesday (confidence 36/100): UKMO forecasts 1.2 mm of rain while ECMWF forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:14 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology