Today
4 Nov
34° 26°
33%0.1 mm
38%
9 weather models · one stack
Darwin weather
Northern Territory, Australia
-12.41°, 130.86° · 29 m
Local time 10:44
Confidence 38%
Darwin weather today: 9 models agree with low confidence on a high of 34°C and a low of 26°C. A chance of showers: 33% of models show rain, up to 4.6 mm. Tomorrow: 34°C. Rain expected: 67% of models agree, about 2.1 mm.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
34° 28°
67%2.1 mm
47%
Fri
6 Nov
34° 27°
78%3.5 mm
47%
Sat
7 Nov
34° 26°
89%6.6 mm
58%
Sun
8 Nov
34° 27°
38%0.4 mm
35%
Mon
9 Nov
35° 27°
57%1.2 mm
31%
Tue
10 Nov
35° 27°
57%1.2 mm
24%
Wed
11 Nov
31° 27°
100%5.6 mm
64%
Thu
12 Nov
32° 27°
100%11 mm
65%
Fri
13 Nov
31° 27°
80%5.0 mm
47%
Sat
14 Nov
31° 26°
100%2.7 mm
56%
Sun
15 Nov
31° 26°
100%14 mm
58%
Mon
16 Nov
30° 27°
100%6.9 mm
56%
Tue
17 Nov
31° 27°
100%11 mm
71%
Wed
18 Nov
31° 26°
100%13 mm
73%
Thu
19 Nov
35° 24°
100%48 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Darwin
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Darwin on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Darwin
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 34°/26° · 0.1 mm | 34°/28° · 2.1 mm | 34°/27° · 3.5 mm | 34°/26° · 6.6 mm | 34°/27° · 0.4 mm | 35°/27° · 1.2 mm | 35°/27° · 1.2 mm |
| ECMWF | 32°/28° · 0.0 mm | 34°/29° · 1.4 mm | 32°/27° · 2.9 mm | 30°/26° · 6.7 mm | 31°/26° · 3.4 mm | 32°/27° · 0.2 mm | 32°/28° · 1.2 mm |
| AIFS | 33°/28° · 1.0 mm | 32°/28° · 3.8 mm | 32°/27° · 6.2 mm | 31°/27° · 8.8 mm | 31°/26° · 5.4 mm | 31°/27° · 8.0 mm | 31°/26° · 4.8 mm |
| GFS | 38°/25° · 0.0 mm | 36°/24° · 13 mm | 38°/24° · 0.0 mm | 37°/25° · 20 mm | 37°/25° · 0.0 mm | 36°/26° · 9.1 mm | 37°/23° · 11 mm |
| ICON | 34°/26° · 0.1 mm | 35°/28° · 3.4 mm | 35°/28° · 3.5 mm | 35°/26° · 5.0 mm | 36°/27° · 0.0 mm | 35°/28° · 0.0 mm | 35°/27° · 0.0 mm |
| GEM | 36°/25° · 0.0 mm | 34°/28° · 2.1 mm | 34°/26° · 5.6 mm | 35°/28° · 7.8 mm | 35°/26° · 6.3 mm | 35°/27° · 1.2 mm | 36°/26° · 0.0 mm |
| JMA | 33°/26° · 4.6 mm | 31°/27° · 9.8 mm | 31°/26° · 13 mm | 31°/26° · 6.6 mm | 33°/27° · 0.8 mm | 33°/27° · 1.8 mm | 31°/27° · 15 mm |
| ARPEGE | 37°/27° · 0.0 mm | 35°/29° · 0.0 mm | 35°/29° · 0.3 mm | 35°/29° · 1.8 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 37°/27° · 0.1 mm | 35°/28° · 0.0 mm | 35°/27° · 6.3 mm | 33°/26° · 4.5 mm | 36°/27° · 0.0 mm | 36°/28° · 0.0 mm | 36°/29° · 0.6 mm |
| CMA | 34°/26° · 1.5 mm | 34°/28° · 0.0 mm | 33°/28° · 2.4 mm | 34°/28° · 0.0 mm | 34°/27° · 0.0 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Tuesday
Confidence is only 24/100. JMA brings 15 mm of rain while ICON has 0.0 mm; highs range from 31° (AIFS) to 37° (GFS). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Darwin weather: questions
Will it rain in Darwin tomorrow?
Rain expected: 67% of models agree, about 2.1 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 2.1 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 13 mm.
When will it rain next in Darwin?
The next day most models agree on rain is Thursday 5 November: 67% of models, about 2.1 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Darwin today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 32°C with 0.0 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 38°C with 0.0 mm. The median of all 9 models is 34°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Darwin?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Darwin forecast this week?
The least certain day is Tuesday (confidence 24/100): JMA forecasts 15 mm of rain while ICON forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:14 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology