Today
4 Nov
32° 19°
11%0.1 mm
66%
9 weather models · one stack
Brisbane weather
Queensland, Australia
-27.45°, 153.02° · 27 m
Local time 11:15
Confidence 66%
Brisbane weather today: 9 models agree with medium confidence on a high of 32°C and a low of 19°C. Dry: only 11% of models show rain. Tomorrow: 35°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Next likely rain: Thursday 12 November (80% of models, ~8.4 mm).
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
35° 19°
0%0.0 mm
87%
Fri
6 Nov
26° 19°
0%0.0 mm
83%
Sat
7 Nov
29° 18°
33%0.3 mm
44%
Sun
8 Nov
28° 18°
38%0.0 mm
27%
Mon
9 Nov
24° 16°
0%0.0 mm
75%
Tue
10 Nov
27° 18°
29%0.0 mm
54%
Wed
11 Nov
29° 19°
40%0.2 mm
53%
Thu
12 Nov
28° 21°
80%8.4 mm
53%
Fri
13 Nov
27° 18°
20%0.0 mm
60%
Sat
14 Nov
28° 18°
0%0.0 mm
59%
Sun
15 Nov
31° 19°
33%0.6 mm
52%
Mon
16 Nov
30° 21°
100%4.8 mm
63%
Tue
17 Nov
29° 20°
100%6.7 mm
92%
Wed
18 Nov
26° 19°
67%6.4 mm
37%
Thu
19 Nov
25° 19°
0%0.0 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Brisbane
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Brisbane on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Brisbane
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 32°/19° · 0.1 mm | 35°/19° · 0.0 mm | 26°/19° · 0.0 mm | 29°/18° · 0.3 mm | 28°/18° · 0.0 mm | 24°/16° · 0.0 mm | 27°/18° · 0.0 mm |
| ECMWF | 32°/18° · 0.0 mm | 34°/19° · 0.0 mm | 26°/17° · 0.0 mm | 26°/16° · 1.7 mm | 27°/18° · 2.4 mm | 23°/15° · 0.3 mm | 28°/17° · 0.0 mm |
| AIFS | 32°/18° · 0.5 mm | 35°/16° · 0.0 mm | 25°/18° · 0.0 mm | 27°/17° · 1.3 mm | 26°/17° · 1.1 mm | 24°/14° · 0.1 mm | 25°/16° · 1.1 mm |
| GFS | 33°/18° · 0.0 mm | 35°/20° · 0.0 mm | 27°/19° · 0.0 mm | 30°/18° · 7.1 mm | 32°/18° · 0.0 mm | 23°/17° · 0.0 mm | 27°/18° · 0.0 mm |
| ICON | 32°/20° · 0.3 mm | 35°/18° · 0.0 mm | 27°/19° · 0.0 mm | 30°/18° · 0.0 mm | 29°/19° · 0.0 mm | 26°/17° · 0.0 mm | 30°/20° · 2.1 mm |
| GEM | 31°/19° · 0.1 mm | 34°/18° · 0.0 mm | 28°/18° · 0.0 mm | 31°/18° · 0.3 mm | 31°/17° · 0.0 mm | 26°/16° · 0.0 mm | 26°/17° · 0.0 mm |
| JMA | 32°/22° · 1.0 mm | 35°/20° · 0.0 mm | 24°/20° · 0.0 mm | 27°/20° · 0.6 mm | 30°/18° · 0.0 mm | 28°/16° · 0.0 mm | 27°/18° · 0.0 mm |
| ARPEGE | 29°/19° · 0.7 mm | 34°/18° · 0.0 mm | 27°/21° · 0.0 mm | 29°/20° · 0.1 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 33°/21° · 0.0 mm | 36°/23° · 0.0 mm | 25°/21° · 0.0 mm | 28°/22° · 0.3 mm | 24°/19° · 4.2 mm | 23°/17° · 0.0 mm | 26°/19° · 0.0 mm |
| CMA | 35°/20° · 0.0 mm | 36°/20° · 0.0 mm | 25°/19° · 0.0 mm | 29°/19° · 0.0 mm | 27°/18° · 0.0 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Sunday
Confidence is only 27/100. UKMO brings 4.2 mm of rain while GFS has 0.0 mm; highs range from 24° (UKMO) to 32° (GFS). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Brisbane weather: questions
Will it rain in Brisbane tomorrow?
Dry: no model shows rain. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.0 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 0.0 mm.
When will it rain next in Brisbane?
The next day most models agree on rain is Thursday 12 November: 80% of models, about 8.4 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Brisbane today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 32°C with 0.0 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 33°C with 0.0 mm. The median of all 9 models is 32°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Brisbane?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Brisbane forecast this week?
The least certain day is Sunday (confidence 27/100): UKMO forecasts 4.2 mm of rain while GFS forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:15 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology