Today
4 Nov
19° 14°
0%0.0 mm
83%
9 weather models · one stack
Wellington weather
Wellington Region, New Zealand
-41.30°, 174.71° · 13 m
Local time 14:15
Confidence 83%
Wellington weather today: 9 models agree with high confidence on a high of 19°C and a low of 14°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Tomorrow: 20°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Next likely rain: Friday 6 November (67% of models, ~1.7 mm).
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
20° 14°
0%0.0 mm
79%
Fri
6 Nov
18° 16°
67%1.7 mm
58%
Sat
7 Nov
19° 15°
67%2.4 mm
51%
Sun
8 Nov
18° 14°
38%0.4 mm
44%
Mon
9 Nov
16° 13°
29%0.7 mm
33%
Tue
10 Nov
17° 14°
100%9.9 mm
68%
Wed
11 Nov
18° 16°
100%8.4 mm
93%
Thu
12 Nov
17° 15°
80%3.2 mm
73%
Fri
13 Nov
18° 15°
40%0.2 mm
50%
Sat
14 Nov
17° 14°
25%0.4 mm
62%
Sun
15 Nov
17° 15°
100%14 mm
83%
Mon
16 Nov
18° 15°
33%0.6 mm
60%
Tue
17 Nov
16° 15°
100%8.6 mm
94%
Wed
18 Nov
17° 13°
33%0.4 mm
64%
Thu
19 Nov
16° 11°
100%3.9 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Wellington
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Wellington on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Wellington
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 19°/14° · 0.0 mm | 20°/14° · 0.0 mm | 18°/16° · 1.7 mm | 19°/15° · 2.4 mm | 18°/14° · 0.4 mm | 16°/13° · 0.7 mm | 17°/14° · 9.9 mm |
| ECMWF | 18°/14° · 0.0 mm | 20°/14° · 0.0 mm | 19°/16° · 1.2 mm | 19°/16° · 2.0 mm | 20°/15° · 0.4 mm | 16°/14° · 0.8 mm | 17°/15° · 17 mm |
| AIFS | 17°/14° · 0.0 mm | 17°/15° · 0.4 mm | 17°/16° · 4.2 mm | 17°/16° · 8.4 mm | 16°/15° · 3.8 mm | 15°/14° · 4.2 mm | 17°/14° · 21 mm |
| GFS | 18°/14° · 0.0 mm | 19°/14° · 0.0 mm | 18°/15° · 1.7 mm | 20°/15° · 0.9 mm | 18°/14° · 0.2 mm | 16°/13° · 0.0 mm | 16°/12° · 9.9 mm |
| ICON | 19°/15° · 0.0 mm | 20°/16° · 0.0 mm | 18°/16° · 0.5 mm | 19°/16° · 6.1 mm | 17°/13° · 5.7 mm | 15°/13° · 0.0 mm | 17°/14° · 9.3 mm |
| GEM | 19°/14° · 0.0 mm | 21°/13° · 0.0 mm | 19°/16° · 3.3 mm | 19°/15° · 6.2 mm | 17°/15° · 1.4 mm | 22°/13° · 0.0 mm | 23°/16° · 9.7 mm |
| JMA | 18°/14° · 0.0 mm | 18°/13° · 0.0 mm | 18°/14° · 0.0 mm | 19°/15° · 2.4 mm | 16°/15° · 0.0 mm | 15°/13° · 1.6 mm | 17°/13° · 1.8 mm |
| ARPEGE | 19°/14° · 0.0 mm | 20°/15° · 0.0 mm | 17°/16° · 3.1 mm | 19°/15° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 20°/11° · 0.0 mm | 21°/11° · 0.0 mm | 18°/16° · 9.0 mm | 22°/15° · 2.7 mm | 20°/13° · 0.3 mm | 20°/14° · 0.7 mm | 18°/14° · 17 mm |
| CMA | 20°/13° · 0.0 mm | 20°/14° · 0.0 mm | 19°/15° · 0.9 mm | 20°/15° · 0.9 mm | 19°/14° · 0.0 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Monday
Confidence is only 33/100. AIFS brings 4.2 mm of rain while GFS has 0.0 mm; highs range from 15° (JMA) to 22° (GEM). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Wellington weather: questions
Will it rain in Wellington tomorrow?
Dry: no model shows rain. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.0 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 0.4 mm.
When will it rain next in Wellington?
The next day most models agree on rain is Friday 6 November: 67% of models, about 1.7 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Wellington today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 18°C with 0.0 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 18°C with 0.0 mm. The median of all 9 models is 19°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Wellington?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Wellington forecast this week?
The least certain day is Monday (confidence 33/100): AIFS forecasts 4.2 mm of rain while GFS forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:15 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology