Today
4 Nov
22° 10°
100%7.8 mm
84%
9 weather models · one stack
Melbourne weather
Victoria, Australia
-37.79°, 144.94° · 19 m
Local time 12:14
Confidence 84%
Melbourne weather today: 9 models agree with high confidence on a high of 22°C and a low of 10°C. Rain expected: 100% of models agree, about 7.8 mm. Tomorrow: 18°C. A chance of showers: 22% of models show rain, up to 1.3 mm.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
18° 10°
22%0.2 mm
67%
Fri
6 Nov
22° 10°
11%0.2 mm
67%
Sat
7 Nov
14° 9°
100%8.7 mm
85%
Sun
8 Nov
16° 10°
0%0.0 mm
80%
Mon
9 Nov
21° 6°
0%0.0 mm
74%
Tue
10 Nov
25° 9°
14%0.0 mm
63%
Wed
11 Nov
17° 13°
60%1.2 mm
37%
Thu
12 Nov
17° 10°
60%3.0 mm
35%
Fri
13 Nov
20° 13°
40%0.6 mm
29%
Sat
14 Nov
18° 13°
25%0.0 mm
61%
Sun
15 Nov
17° 11°
100%2.4 mm
73%
Mon
16 Nov
17° 11°
67%1.2 mm
41%
Tue
17 Nov
18° 11°
33%0.6 mm
59%
Wed
18 Nov
20° 11°
0%0.3 mm
68%
Thu
19 Nov
22° 13°
0%0.0 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Melbourne
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Melbourne on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Melbourne
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 22°/10° · 7.8 mm | 18°/10° · 0.2 mm | 22°/10° · 0.2 mm | 14°/9° · 8.7 mm | 16°/10° · 0.0 mm | 21°/6° · 0.0 mm | 25°/9° · 0.0 mm |
| ECMWF | 22°/10° · 7.2 mm | 16°/10° · 0.0 mm | 20°/11° · 0.2 mm | 13°/9° · 17 mm | 15°/10° · 0.6 mm | 19°/6° · 0.0 mm | 24°/9° · 0.0 mm |
| AIFS | 21°/9° · 9.6 mm | 18°/10° · 1.2 mm | 22°/8° · 0.6 mm | 14°/9° · 7.8 mm | 16°/7° · 0.6 mm | 22°/5° · 0.0 mm | 24°/9° · 1.2 mm |
| GFS | 22°/10° · 8.1 mm | 18°/10° · 0.2 mm | 22°/9° · 0.1 mm | 14°/8° · 19 mm | 15°/7° · 0.3 mm | 19°/6° · 0.0 mm | 25°/8° · 0.0 mm |
| ICON | 21°/11° · 7.8 mm | 18°/10° · 0.2 mm | 22°/10° · 0.0 mm | 14°/10° · 9.7 mm | 18°/10° · 0.0 mm | 21°/8° · 0.0 mm | 25°/11° · 0.0 mm |
| GEM | 22°/9° · 10 mm | 17°/10° · 1.3 mm | 22°/7° · 0.7 mm | 13°/9° · 8.7 mm | 15°/10° · 0.0 mm | 21°/5° · 0.0 mm | 27°/8° · 0.6 mm |
| JMA | 19°/13° · 4.2 mm | 16°/13° · 0.6 mm | 20°/13° · 0.6 mm | 12°/11° · 6.6 mm | 14°/12° · 0.0 mm | 18°/11° · 0.0 mm | 27°/13° · 0.0 mm |
| ARPEGE | 22°/10° · 6.4 mm | 18°/10° · 0.3 mm | 24°/10° · 0.0 mm | 14°/10° · 26 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 23°/11° · 9.0 mm | 18°/11° · 0.0 mm | 23°/12° · 0.0 mm | 16°/9° · 6.9 mm | 18°/10° · 0.0 mm | 23°/9° · 0.0 mm | 29°/15° · 0.0 mm |
| CMA | 22°/10° · 5.4 mm | 18°/10° · 0.0 mm | 24°/11° · 1.8 mm | 14°/11° · 2.1 mm | 17°/8° · 0.0 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Tuesday
Confidence is only 63/100. AIFS brings 1.2 mm of rain while ECMWF has 0.0 mm; highs range from 24° (ECMWF) to 29° (UKMO). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Melbourne weather: questions
Will it rain in Melbourne tomorrow?
A chance of showers: 22% of models show rain, up to 1.3 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.2 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 1.3 mm.
When will it rain next in Melbourne?
The next day most models agree on rain is Wednesday 4 November: 100% of models, about 7.8 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Melbourne today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 22°C with 7.2 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 22°C with 8.1 mm. The median of all 9 models is 22°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Melbourne?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Melbourne forecast this week?
The least certain day is Tuesday (confidence 63/100): AIFS forecasts 1.2 mm of rain while ECMWF forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 00:38 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology