Today
4 Nov
20° 10°
100%8.1 mm
68%
9 weather models · one stack
Hobart weather
Tasmania, Australia
-42.85°, 147.33° · 24 m
Local time 12:15
Confidence 68%
Hobart weather today: 9 models agree with medium confidence on a high of 20°C and a low of 10°C. Rain expected: 100% of models agree, about 8.1 mm. Tomorrow: 19°C. A chance of showers: 33% of models show rain, up to 3.0 mm.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
19° 10°
33%0.3 mm
48%
Fri
6 Nov
16° 10°
56%1.8 mm
41%
Sat
7 Nov
12° 7°
67%1.8 mm
55%
Sun
8 Nov
13° 6°
13%0.3 mm
70%
Mon
9 Nov
15° 8°
0%0.0 mm
81%
Tue
10 Nov
18° 7°
0%0.0 mm
77%
Wed
11 Nov
18° 10°
40%0.6 mm
35%
Thu
12 Nov
18° 10°
20%0.0 mm
33%
Fri
13 Nov
18° 10°
60%1.2 mm
23%
Sat
14 Nov
18° 12°
25%0.5 mm
48%
Sun
15 Nov
17° 9°
33%0.3 mm
52%
Mon
16 Nov
17° 8°
67%4.8 mm
45%
Tue
17 Nov
16° 9°
33%0.0 mm
35%
Wed
18 Nov
19° 8°
0%0.3 mm
64%
Thu
19 Nov
22° 10°
0%0.0 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Hobart
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Hobart on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Hobart
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 20°/10° · 8.1 mm | 19°/10° · 0.3 mm | 16°/10° · 1.8 mm | 12°/7° · 1.8 mm | 13°/6° · 0.3 mm | 15°/8° · 0.0 mm | 18°/7° · 0.0 mm |
| ECMWF | 20°/9° · 6.2 mm | 19°/8° · 0.0 mm | 16°/8° · 0.6 mm | 13°/6° · 4.5 mm | 12°/5° · 0.9 mm | 15°/8° · 0.3 mm | 19°/6° · 0.0 mm |
| AIFS | 17°/10° · 6.6 mm | 19°/12° · 1.2 mm | 17°/10° · 4.8 mm | 12°/8° · 4.8 mm | 15°/7° · 1.2 mm | 17°/9° · 0.0 mm | 20°/10° · 0.6 mm |
| GFS | 22°/9° · 3.3 mm | 21°/5° · 0.0 mm | 15°/5° · 0.5 mm | 13°/3° · 3.2 mm | 14°/1° · 0.1 mm | 15°/5° · 0.0 mm | 18°/4° · 0.0 mm |
| ICON | 21°/10° · 6.9 mm | 19°/11° · 1.2 mm | 18°/10° · 0.5 mm | 12°/7° · 1.5 mm | 12°/6° · 0.3 mm | 14°/9° · 0.0 mm | 17°/7° · 0.6 mm |
| GEM | 20°/10° · 13 mm | 17°/9° · 3.0 mm | 16°/8° · 3.2 mm | 11°/6° · 0.9 mm | 13°/5° · 0.3 mm | 16°/5° · 0.0 mm | 17°/7° · 0.0 mm |
| JMA | 15°/12° · 9.0 mm | 16°/12° · 0.0 mm | 14°/10° · 1.8 mm | 10°/9° · 3.6 mm | 12°/10° · 0.6 mm | 14°/10° · 0.0 mm | 16°/12° · 0.0 mm |
| ARPEGE | 19°/11° · 11 mm | 19°/9° · 0.3 mm | 15°/9° · 2.4 mm | 12°/7° · 0.9 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 21°/9° · 8.1 mm | 20°/10° · 0.3 mm | 18°/10° · 0.6 mm | 13°/5° · 1.8 mm | 14°/5° · 0.0 mm | 16°/6° · 0.0 mm | 20°/4° · 0.0 mm |
| CMA | 21°/11° · 15 mm | 18°/10° · 0.3 mm | 16°/10° · 5.4 mm | 13°/7° · 0.0 mm | 15°/7° · 0.0 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Friday
Confidence is only 41/100. CMA brings 5.4 mm of rain while GFS has 0.5 mm; highs range from 14° (JMA) to 18° (ICON). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Hobart weather: questions
Will it rain in Hobart tomorrow?
A chance of showers: 33% of models show rain, up to 3.0 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.3 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 3.0 mm.
When will it rain next in Hobart?
The next day most models agree on rain is Wednesday 4 November: 100% of models, about 8.1 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Hobart today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 20°C with 6.2 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 22°C with 3.3 mm. The median of all 9 models is 20°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Hobart?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Hobart forecast this week?
The least certain day is Friday (confidence 41/100): CMA forecasts 5.4 mm of rain while GFS forecasts 0.5 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:15 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology