Today
4 Nov
19° 12°
0%0.0 mm
77%
9 weather models · one stack
Christchurch weather
Canterbury, New Zealand
-43.55°, 172.69° · 7 m
Local time 14:17
Confidence 77%
Christchurch weather today: 9 models agree with high confidence on a high of 19°C and a low of 12°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Tomorrow: 24°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Next likely rain: Monday 9 November (57% of models, ~1.8 mm).
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
24° 14°
0%0.0 mm
77%
Fri
6 Nov
26° 16°
33%0.1 mm
46%
Sat
7 Nov
24° 15°
44%0.6 mm
38%
Sun
8 Nov
19° 12°
25%0.1 mm
55%
Mon
9 Nov
14° 12°
57%1.8 mm
44%
Tue
10 Nov
15° 13°
86%5.6 mm
65%
Wed
11 Nov
21° 13°
80%3.6 mm
67%
Thu
12 Nov
19° 13°
60%1.5 mm
23%
Fri
13 Nov
20° 10°
40%0.0 mm
10%
Sat
14 Nov
16° 12°
25%0.5 mm
49%
Sun
15 Nov
18° 12°
67%6.4 mm
15%
Mon
16 Nov
17° 12°
67%2.1 mm
28%
Tue
17 Nov
16° 10°
100%9.6 mm
50%
Wed
18 Nov
17° 10°
33%0.6 mm
67%
Thu
19 Nov
17° 11°
100%5.0 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Christchurch
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Christchurch on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Christchurch
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 19°/12° · 0.0 mm | 24°/14° · 0.0 mm | 26°/16° · 0.1 mm | 24°/15° · 0.6 mm | 19°/12° · 0.1 mm | 14°/12° · 1.8 mm | 15°/13° · 5.6 mm |
| ECMWF | 19°/12° · 0.2 mm | 24°/13° · 0.0 mm | 28°/16° · 2.3 mm | 24°/15° · 0.1 mm | 19°/12° · 0.0 mm | 14°/13° · 0.9 mm | 15°/13° · 4.4 mm |
| AIFS | 20°/12° · 0.0 mm | 25°/14° · 0.0 mm | 27°/16° · 1.2 mm | 21°/14° · 3.8 mm | 19°/13° · 3.2 mm | 14°/12° · 4.6 mm | 16°/13° · 9.8 mm |
| GFS | 19°/10° · 0.0 mm | 25°/11° · 0.0 mm | 26°/15° · 0.0 mm | 21°/12° · 0.0 mm | 19°/10° · 0.1 mm | 13°/11° · 0.3 mm | 14°/12° · 5.6 mm |
| ICON | 17°/12° · 0.0 mm | 24°/14° · 0.0 mm | 28°/15° · 0.5 mm | 24°/13° · 0.6 mm | 16°/12° · 0.0 mm | 14°/12° · 0.4 mm | 14°/12° · 9.5 mm |
| GEM | 17°/13° · 0.0 mm | 22°/12° · 0.0 mm | 25°/14° · 0.1 mm | 22°/15° · 1.1 mm | 20°/13° · 0.0 mm | 16°/13° · 1.8 mm | 19°/14° · 0.3 mm |
| JMA | 21°/12° · 0.0 mm | 24°/13° · 0.0 mm | 24°/16° · 0.0 mm | 24°/15° · 2.4 mm | 17°/13° · 1.0 mm | 13°/11° · 2.6 mm | 15°/11° · 7.2 mm |
| ARPEGE | 17°/13° · 0.0 mm | 23°/14° · 0.0 mm | 23°/17° · 0.0 mm | 24°/15° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 20°/12° · 0.0 mm | 27°/14° · 0.0 mm | 28°/16° · 1.6 mm | 24°/14° · 0.0 mm | 21°/12° · 0.3 mm | 16°/13° · 4.3 mm | 15°/13° · 5.4 mm |
| CMA | 18°/12° · 0.0 mm | 22°/14° · 0.0 mm | 25°/17° · 0.0 mm | 21°/16° · 4.5 mm | 19°/12° · 0.0 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Saturday
Confidence is only 38/100. CMA brings 4.5 mm of rain while GFS has 0.0 mm; highs range from 21° (AIFS) to 24° (ARPEGE). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Christchurch weather: questions
Will it rain in Christchurch tomorrow?
Dry: no model shows rain. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.0 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 0.0 mm.
When will it rain next in Christchurch?
The next day most models agree on rain is Monday 9 November: 57% of models, about 1.8 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Christchurch today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 19°C with 0.2 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 19°C with 0.0 mm. The median of all 9 models is 19°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Christchurch?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Christchurch forecast this week?
The least certain day is Saturday (confidence 38/100): CMA forecasts 4.5 mm of rain while GFS forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:17 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology