Today
4 Nov
23° 17°
44%0.6 mm
30%
9 weather models · one stack
Sydney weather
New South Wales, Australia
-33.85°, 151.20° · 51 m
Local time 12:15
Confidence 30%
Sydney weather today: 9 models agree with low confidence on a high of 23°C and a low of 17°C. A chance of showers: 44% of models show rain, up to 3.0 mm. Tomorrow: 21°C. A chance of showers: 22% of models show rain, up to 1.8 mm. Next likely rain: Saturday 7 November (100% of models, ~11 mm).
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
21° 17°
22%0.1 mm
60%
Fri
6 Nov
22° 14°
0%0.0 mm
77%
Sat
7 Nov
27° 13°
100%11 mm
56%
Sun
8 Nov
17° 11°
50%1.2 mm
41%
Mon
9 Nov
18° 11°
29%0.3 mm
58%
Tue
10 Nov
22° 12°
0%0.0 mm
80%
Wed
11 Nov
25° 15°
40%0.0 mm
20%
Thu
12 Nov
22° 17°
100%11 mm
71%
Fri
13 Nov
20° 16°
60%11 mm
48%
Sat
14 Nov
23° 15°
25%0.0 mm
53%
Sun
15 Nov
24° 17°
67%1.8 mm
43%
Mon
16 Nov
24° 18°
33%0.3 mm
49%
Tue
17 Nov
20° 18°
100%7.2 mm
91%
Wed
18 Nov
20° 16°
67%1.2 mm
51%
Thu
19 Nov
22° 15°
100%1.2 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Sydney
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Sydney on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Sydney
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 23°/17° · 0.6 mm | 21°/17° · 0.1 mm | 22°/14° · 0.0 mm | 27°/13° · 11 mm | 17°/11° · 1.2 mm | 18°/11° · 0.3 mm | 22°/12° · 0.0 mm |
| ECMWF | 22°/17° · 2.4 mm | 20°/17° · 1.4 mm | 21°/14° · 0.0 mm | 27°/14° · 7.9 mm | 16°/11° · 6.3 mm | 18°/10° · 0.3 mm | 21°/11° · 0.0 mm |
| AIFS | 22°/18° · 3.0 mm | 20°/17° · 1.8 mm | 21°/15° · 0.0 mm | 23°/14° · 11 mm | 17°/12° · 4.8 mm | 18°/13° · 1.8 mm | 20°/13° · 0.0 mm |
| GFS | 25°/17° · 0.0 mm | 21°/16° · 0.8 mm | 24°/13° · 0.0 mm | 31°/14° · 6.8 mm | 18°/9° · 2.8 mm | 20°/9° · 0.0 mm | 23°/12° · 0.0 mm |
| ICON | 27°/16° · 0.0 mm | 23°/16° · 0.1 mm | 25°/14° · 0.0 mm | 29°/13° · 12 mm | 18°/10° · 0.0 mm | 20°/10° · 0.0 mm | 24°/12° · 0.0 mm |
| GEM | 21°/18° · 1.2 mm | 20°/17° · 0.1 mm | 22°/16° · 0.0 mm | 25°/13° · 11 mm | 17°/10° · 0.0 mm | 17°/12° · 0.3 mm | 21°/11° · 0.0 mm |
| JMA | 23°/17° · 0.0 mm | 19°/17° · 0.0 mm | 22°/14° · 0.0 mm | 25°/12° · 25 mm | 15°/11° · 1.8 mm | 18°/11° · 0.6 mm | 22°/13° · 0.0 mm |
| ARPEGE | 26°/18° · 0.6 mm | 22°/18° · 0.1 mm | 24°/15° · 0.0 mm | 31°/11° · 8.7 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 25°/17° · 1.5 mm | 23°/16° · 0.6 mm | 23°/15° · 0.0 mm | 29°/14° · 12 mm | 17°/13° · 0.6 mm | 19°/11° · 1.5 mm | 23°/13° · 0.0 mm |
| CMA | 23°/16° · 0.3 mm | 21°/16° · 0.0 mm | 20°/13° · 0.0 mm | 24°/13° · 2.4 mm | 17°/12° · 0.3 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Wednesday
Confidence is only 30/100. AIFS brings 3.0 mm of rain while GFS has 0.0 mm; highs range from 21° (GEM) to 27° (ICON). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Sydney weather: questions
Will it rain in Sydney tomorrow?
A chance of showers: 22% of models show rain, up to 1.8 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.1 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 1.8 mm.
When will it rain next in Sydney?
The next day most models agree on rain is Saturday 7 November: 100% of models, about 11 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Sydney today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 22°C with 2.4 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 25°C with 0.0 mm. The median of all 9 models is 23°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Sydney?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Sydney forecast this week?
The least certain day is Wednesday (confidence 30/100): AIFS forecasts 3.0 mm of rain while GFS forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:15 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology