Today
4 Nov
26° 22°
67%1.1 mm
55%
9 weather models · one stack
Durban weather
KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
-29.84°, 30.98° · 7 m
Local time 03:15
Confidence 55%
Durban weather today: 9 models agree with medium confidence on a high of 26°C and a low of 22°C. Rain expected: 67% of models agree, about 1.1 mm. Tomorrow: 30°C. A chance of showers: 33% of models show rain, up to 16 mm.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
30° 21°
33%0.3 mm
38%
Fri
6 Nov
26° 21°
67%1.8 mm
39%
Sat
7 Nov
23° 19°
100%18 mm
84%
Sun
8 Nov
19° 17°
100%54 mm
87%
Mon
9 Nov
23° 17°
71%6.6 mm
55%
Tue
10 Nov
25° 18°
0%0.0 mm
88%
Wed
11 Nov
25° 19°
0%0.0 mm
82%
Thu
12 Nov
24° 20°
60%3.0 mm
51%
Fri
13 Nov
22° 19°
100%12 mm
95%
Sat
14 Nov
22° 19°
75%7.2 mm
68%
Sun
15 Nov
26° 20°
33%0.6 mm
66%
Mon
16 Nov
28° 21°
33%0.6 mm
60%
Tue
17 Nov
25° 21°
67%2.4 mm
44%
Wed
18 Nov
24° 21°
50%1.1 mm
27%
Thu
19 Nov
20° 18°
100%11 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Durban
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Durban on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Durban
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 26°/22° · 1.1 mm | 30°/21° · 0.3 mm | 26°/21° · 1.8 mm | 23°/19° · 18 mm | 19°/17° · 54 mm | 23°/17° · 6.6 mm | 25°/18° · 0.0 mm |
| ECMWF | 26°/21° · 1.0 mm | 29°/20° · 0.0 mm | 27°/21° · 4.0 mm | 23°/19° · 18 mm | 19°/14° · 70 mm | 22°/14° · 6.6 mm | 24°/16° · 0.0 mm |
| AIFS | 27°/22° · 2.4 mm | 33°/22° · 0.3 mm | 26°/21° · 2.1 mm | 23°/19° · 11 mm | 19°/17° · 24 mm | 23°/17° · 3.3 mm | 26°/18° · 0.0 mm |
| GFS | 26°/20° · 0.7 mm | 31°/21° · 3.3 mm | 26°/21° · 1.8 mm | 20°/16° · 18 mm | 17°/16° · 24 mm | 23°/15° · 0.9 mm | 25°/15° · 0.0 mm |
| ICON | 26°/22° · 0.5 mm | 31°/21° · 0.0 mm | 31°/22° · 0.0 mm | 23°/20° · 2.7 mm | 20°/18° · 3.6 mm | 23°/17° · 0.0 mm | 25°/18° · 0.0 mm |
| GEM | 24°/21° · 1.4 mm | 30°/20° · 0.8 mm | 25°/23° · 0.1 mm | 23°/18° · 29 mm | 18°/17° · 73 mm | 21°/17° · 11 mm | 25°/17° · 0.0 mm |
| JMA | 24°/22° · 3.3 mm | 27°/22° · 16 mm | 24°/21° · 6.0 mm | 21°/19° · 18 mm | 19°/16° · 54 mm | 21°/16° · 16 mm | 25°/20° · 0.3 mm |
| ARPEGE | 25°/22° · 1.1 mm | 30°/21° · 0.0 mm | 28°/22° · 0.3 mm | 24°/19° · 9.6 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 26°/22° · 0.6 mm | 34°/23° · 8.3 mm | 25°/21° · 6.9 mm | 21°/19° · 48 mm | 20°/17° · 58 mm | 24°/17° · 9.9 mm | - |
| CMA | 25°/21° · 4.5 mm | 30°/22° · 0.0 mm | 28°/21° · 1.5 mm | 23°/19° · 7.8 mm | - | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Thursday
Confidence is only 38/100. JMA brings 16 mm of rain while ECMWF has 0.0 mm; highs range from 27° (JMA) to 34° (UKMO). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Durban weather: questions
Will it rain in Durban tomorrow?
A chance of showers: 33% of models show rain, up to 16 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.3 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 16 mm.
When will it rain next in Durban?
The next day most models agree on rain is Wednesday 4 November: 67% of models, about 1.1 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Durban today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 26°C with 1.0 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 26°C with 0.7 mm. The median of all 9 models is 26°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Durban?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Durban forecast this week?
The least certain day is Thursday (confidence 38/100): JMA forecasts 16 mm of rain while ECMWF forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 00:58 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology