Today
4 Nov
29° 17°
0%0.0 mm
58%
9 weather models · one stack
Cape Town weather
Western Cape, South Africa
-33.99°, 18.43° · 29 m
Local time 03:15
Confidence 58%
Cape Town weather today: 9 models agree with medium confidence on a high of 29°C and a low of 17°C. Dry: no model shows rain. Tomorrow: 21°C. A chance of showers: 44% of models show rain, up to 4.1 mm. Next likely rain: Friday 6 November (56% of models, ~1.2 mm).
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
21° 17°
44%0.9 mm
49%
Fri
6 Nov
19° 16°
56%1.2 mm
47%
Sat
7 Nov
19° 14°
11%0.0 mm
77%
Sun
8 Nov
27° 14°
0%0.0 mm
61%
Mon
9 Nov
23° 17°
0%0.0 mm
49%
Tue
10 Nov
23° 17°
0%0.0 mm
74%
Wed
11 Nov
20° 17°
40%0.9 mm
49%
Thu
12 Nov
20° 17°
20%0.3 mm
70%
Fri
13 Nov
21° 16°
0%0.0 mm
84%
Sat
14 Nov
24° 16°
0%0.0 mm
51%
Sun
15 Nov
25° 16°
0%0.0 mm
56%
Mon
16 Nov
22° 18°
0%0.0 mm
73%
Tue
17 Nov
22° 16°
0%0.0 mm
85%
Wed
18 Nov
22° 16°
0%0.0 mm
54%
Thu
19 Nov
22° 16°
0%0.0 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Cape Town
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Cape Town on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Cape Town
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 29°/17° · 0.0 mm | 21°/17° · 0.9 mm | 19°/16° · 1.2 mm | 19°/14° · 0.0 mm | 27°/14° · 0.0 mm | 23°/17° · 0.0 mm | 23°/17° · 0.0 mm |
| ECMWF | 30°/17° · 0.0 mm | 21°/16° · 3.3 mm | 19°/15° · 5.8 mm | 19°/13° · 0.4 mm | 27°/14° · 0.0 mm | 30°/16° · 0.0 mm | 23°/17° · 0.0 mm |
| AIFS | 23°/17° · 0.0 mm | 20°/18° · 1.8 mm | 18°/17° · 5.1 mm | 18°/16° · 1.5 mm | 22°/15° · 0.0 mm | 22°/17° · 0.0 mm | 21°/17° · 0.0 mm |
| GFS | 27°/19° · 0.0 mm | 21°/17° · 0.9 mm | 20°/16° · 2.8 mm | 19°/14° · 0.3 mm | 28°/13° · 0.0 mm | 29°/18° · 0.0 mm | 25°/18° · 0.0 mm |
| ICON | 29°/17° · 0.0 mm | 20°/17° · 0.5 mm | 19°/16° · 0.1 mm | 20°/14° · 0.0 mm | 27°/14° · 0.0 mm | 26°/17° · 0.0 mm | 24°/17° · 0.0 mm |
| GEM | 22°/15° · 0.0 mm | 19°/15° · 1.7 mm | 17°/15° · 3.3 mm | 18°/14° · 0.0 mm | 23°/14° · 0.0 mm | 23°/14° · 0.0 mm | 22°/17° · 0.0 mm |
| JMA | 28°/18° · 0.0 mm | 21°/18° · 0.6 mm | 19°/16° · 0.3 mm | 19°/15° · 0.3 mm | 27°/16° · 0.0 mm | 21°/18° · 0.0 mm | 21°/17° · 0.0 mm |
| ARPEGE | 29°/18° · 0.0 mm | 21°/17° · 0.0 mm | 20°/16° · 0.0 mm | 20°/15° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 30°/19° · 0.1 mm | 21°/17° · 4.1 mm | 20°/16° · 1.2 mm | 19°/15° · 0.0 mm | 30°/14° · 0.0 mm | 23°/19° · 0.0 mm | - |
| CMA | 29°/16° · 0.0 mm | 20°/15° · 0.9 mm | 20°/14° · 0.0 mm | 20°/13° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Friday
Confidence is only 47/100. ECMWF brings 5.8 mm of rain while ARPEGE has 0.0 mm; highs range from 17° (GEM) to 20° (ARPEGE). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Cape Town weather: questions
Will it rain in Cape Town tomorrow?
A chance of showers: 44% of models show rain, up to 4.1 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.9 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 4.1 mm.
When will it rain next in Cape Town?
The next day most models agree on rain is Friday 6 November: 56% of models, about 1.2 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Cape Town today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 30°C with 0.0 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 27°C with 0.0 mm. The median of all 9 models is 29°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Cape Town?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Cape Town forecast this week?
The least certain day is Friday (confidence 47/100): ECMWF forecasts 5.8 mm of rain while ARPEGE forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 00:42 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology