Today
4 Nov
20° 16°
44%0.5 mm
48%
9 weather models · one stack
Auckland weather
Auckland, New Zealand
-36.87°, 174.79° · 30 m
Local time 14:17
Confidence 48%
Auckland weather today: 9 models agree with medium confidence on a high of 20°C and a low of 16°C. A chance of showers: 44% of models show rain, up to 8.8 mm. Tomorrow: 20°C. A chance of showers: 44% of models show rain, up to 2.8 mm. Next likely rain: Friday 6 November (100% of models, ~7.4 mm).
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
20° 16°
44%0.7 mm
44%
Fri
6 Nov
22° 17°
100%7.4 mm
75%
Sat
7 Nov
21° 16°
89%9.6 mm
69%
Sun
8 Nov
21° 15°
38%0.3 mm
49%
Mon
9 Nov
21° 15°
57%1.0 mm
50%
Tue
10 Nov
19° 18°
100%17 mm
86%
Wed
11 Nov
19° 17°
100%22 mm
91%
Thu
12 Nov
20° 16°
80%2.6 mm
51%
Fri
13 Nov
20° 15°
60%2.0 mm
38%
Sat
14 Nov
20° 14°
50%6.1 mm
33%
Sun
15 Nov
21° 17°
100%8.1 mm
90%
Mon
16 Nov
21° 16°
67%1.2 mm
69%
Tue
17 Nov
21° 15°
67%1.2 mm
53%
Wed
18 Nov
22° 16°
67%1.2 mm
56%
Thu
19 Nov
18° 15°
100%9.5 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Auckland
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Auckland on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Auckland
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 20°/16° · 0.5 mm | 20°/16° · 0.7 mm | 22°/17° · 7.4 mm | 21°/16° · 9.6 mm | 21°/15° · 0.3 mm | 21°/15° · 1.0 mm | 19°/18° · 17 mm |
| ECMWF | 20°/16° · 8.8 mm | 20°/17° · 0.4 mm | 21°/17° · 7.4 mm | 20°/17° · 8.6 mm | 22°/15° · 2.8 mm | 20°/17° · 11 mm | 19°/18° · 33 mm |
| AIFS | 19°/16° · 7.2 mm | 20°/17° · 2.8 mm | 21°/17° · 11 mm | 19°/17° · 21 mm | 20°/15° · 2.2 mm | 20°/16° · 9.6 mm | 19°/18° · 17 mm |
| GFS | 21°/15° · 0.0 mm | 22°/16° · 1.0 mm | 24°/15° · 42 mm | 23°/15° · 3.2 mm | 23°/13° · 0.2 mm | 22°/14° · 0.6 mm | 17°/17° · 16 mm |
| ICON | 21°/17° · 0.0 mm | 22°/17° · 0.1 mm | 22°/17° · 2.7 mm | 21°/16° · 9.0 mm | 21°/15° · 0.0 mm | 21°/16° · 0.7 mm | 20°/17° · 30 mm |
| GEM | 20°/16° · 2.8 mm | 21°/16° · 1.0 mm | 23°/17° · 5.9 mm | 21°/16° · 0.7 mm | 22°/15° · 0.0 mm | 22°/15° · 0.0 mm | 20°/18° · 1.9 mm |
| JMA | 19°/16° · 0.0 mm | 20°/16° · 0.0 mm | 20°/17° · 3.4 mm | 20°/16° · 9.6 mm | 19°/16° · 1.4 mm | 20°/15° · 1.0 mm | 20°/17° · 12 mm |
| ARPEGE | 20°/17° · 0.5 mm | 20°/16° · 0.7 mm | 19°/17° · 20 mm | 20°/16° · 16 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 19°/16° · 2.0 mm | 20°/16° · 0.6 mm | 23°/17° · 5.5 mm | 23°/15° · 25 mm | 22°/14° · 0.3 mm | 21°/13° · 1.0 mm | 18°/18° · 28 mm |
| CMA | 20°/15° · 0.5 mm | 21°/16° · 1.5 mm | 22°/16° · 16 mm | 22°/16° · 19 mm | 20°/14° · 0.0 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Thursday
Confidence is only 44/100. AIFS brings 2.8 mm of rain while JMA has 0.0 mm; highs range from 20° (UKMO) to 22° (GFS). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Auckland weather: questions
Will it rain in Auckland tomorrow?
A chance of showers: 44% of models show rain, up to 2.8 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 0.7 mm, ranging from 0.0 mm to 2.8 mm.
When will it rain next in Auckland?
The next day most models agree on rain is Friday 6 November: 100% of models, about 7.4 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Auckland today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 20°C with 8.8 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 21°C with 0.0 mm. The median of all 9 models is 20°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Auckland?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Auckland forecast this week?
The least certain day is Thursday (confidence 44/100): AIFS forecasts 2.8 mm of rain while JMA forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:17 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology