Today
4 Nov
20° 12°
56%1.8 mm
49%
9 weather models · one stack
Osaka weather
Osaka, Japan
34.69°, 135.51° · 5 m
Local time 10:14
Confidence 49%
Osaka weather today: 9 models agree with medium confidence on a high of 20°C and a low of 12°C. Rain expected: 56% of models agree, about 1.8 mm. Tomorrow: 22°C. Rain expected: 100% of models agree, about 4.9 mm.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
22° 16°
100%4.9 mm
85%
Fri
6 Nov
20° 14°
67%1.1 mm
59%
Sat
7 Nov
16° 11°
0%0.0 mm
86%
Sun
8 Nov
15° 10°
0%0.0 mm
82%
Mon
9 Nov
17° 11°
29%0.0 mm
44%
Tue
10 Nov
16° 9°
14%0.0 mm
63%
Wed
11 Nov
17° 8°
0%0.0 mm
81%
Thu
12 Nov
18° 8°
0%0.0 mm
84%
Fri
13 Nov
19° 10°
0%0.0 mm
76%
Sat
14 Nov
18° 10°
0%0.0 mm
79%
Sun
15 Nov
17° 10°
67%1.2 mm
60%
Mon
16 Nov
20° 14°
67%15 mm
64%
Tue
17 Nov
20° 15°
67%1.0 mm
43%
Wed
18 Nov
16° 14°
67%13 mm
53%
Thu
19 Nov
17° 14°
100%2.2 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Osaka
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Osaka on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Osaka
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 20°/12° · 1.8 mm | 22°/16° · 4.9 mm | 20°/14° · 1.1 mm | 16°/11° · 0.0 mm | 15°/10° · 0.0 mm | 17°/11° · 0.0 mm | 16°/9° · 0.0 mm |
| ECMWF | 20°/12° · 1.9 mm | 24°/16° · 11 mm | 20°/13° · 1.0 mm | 16°/10° · 0.0 mm | 15°/8° · 0.0 mm | 17°/10° · 0.0 mm | 16°/8° · 0.0 mm |
| AIFS | 19°/11° · 2.4 mm | 21°/16° · 5.6 mm | 21°/14° · 2.8 mm | 17°/11° · 0.0 mm | 15°/10° · 0.0 mm | 18°/11° · 0.0 mm | 15°/9° · 0.0 mm |
| GFS | 21°/14° · 0.0 mm | 23°/17° · 3.1 mm | 21°/16° · 1.1 mm | 17°/13° · 0.0 mm | 15°/11° · 0.0 mm | 17°/11° · 0.0 mm | 12°/9° · 0.0 mm |
| ICON | 20°/12° · 4.8 mm | 22°/16° · 6.7 mm | 20°/14° · 0.8 mm | 15°/11° · 0.0 mm | 14°/10° · 0.0 mm | 16°/11° · 3.3 mm | 17°/11° · 0.0 mm |
| GEM | 20°/5° · 0.5 mm | 22°/13° · 3.2 mm | 20°/9° · 3.1 mm | 16°/8° · 0.0 mm | 17°/5° · 0.0 mm | 22°/6° · 4.8 mm | 17°/11° · 15 mm |
| JMA | 21°/13° · 1.8 mm | 23°/15° · 4.3 mm | 22°/15° · 1.1 mm | 16°/12° · 0.0 mm | 17°/11° · 0.0 mm | 18°/12° · 0.2 mm | 14°/9° · 0.4 mm |
| ARPEGE | 19°/12° · 0.1 mm | 21°/15° · 4.9 mm | 20°/14° · 0.0 mm | 17°/10° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 21°/12° · 4.6 mm | 22°/16° · 2.0 mm | 21°/15° · 0.7 mm | 15°/12° · 0.0 mm | 16°/11° · 0.0 mm | 16°/11° · 0.0 mm | 16°/10° · 0.0 mm |
| CMA | 21°/12° · 0.6 mm | 22°/15° · 9.0 mm | 19°/12° · 2.1 mm | 14°/10° · 0.0 mm | 15°/8° · 0.0 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Monday
Confidence is only 44/100. GEM brings 4.8 mm of rain while ECMWF has 0.0 mm; highs range from 16° (ICON) to 22° (GEM). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Osaka weather: questions
Will it rain in Osaka tomorrow?
Rain expected: 100% of models agree, about 4.9 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 4.9 mm, ranging from 2.0 mm to 11 mm.
When will it rain next in Osaka?
The next day most models agree on rain is Wednesday 4 November: 56% of models, about 1.8 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Osaka today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 20°C with 1.9 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 21°C with 0.0 mm. The median of all 9 models is 20°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Osaka?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Osaka forecast this week?
The least certain day is Monday (confidence 44/100): GEM forecasts 4.8 mm of rain while ECMWF forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:14 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology