Today
4 Nov
9° 2°
100%3.3 mm
82%
9 weather models · one stack
Sapporo weather
Hokkaido, Japan
43.13°, 141.37° · 21 m
Local time 10:15
Confidence 82%
Sapporo weather today: 9 models agree with high confidence on a high of 9°C and a low of 2°C. Rain expected: 100% of models agree, about 3.3 mm. Tomorrow: 14°C. Rain expected: 100% of models agree, about 9.9 mm.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
14° 2°
100%9.9 mm
79%
Fri
6 Nov
15° 4°
100%8.3 mm
80%
Sat
7 Nov
4° 1°
78%3.1 mm
66%
Sun
8 Nov
4° 1°
63%1.4 mm
55%
Mon
9 Nov
2° -3°
100%3.8 mm
79%
Tue
10 Nov
2° -2°
71%2.8 mm
47%
Wed
11 Nov
5° -2°
80%2.8 mm
31%
Thu
12 Nov
6° 1°
40%0.2 mm
9%
Fri
13 Nov
10° 0°
40%0.1 mm
9%
Sat
14 Nov
8° 2°
25%0.3 mm
53%
Sun
15 Nov
8° 1°
33%0.2 mm
39%
Mon
16 Nov
9° 2°
33%0.6 mm
28%
Tue
17 Nov
7° 2°
33%0.4 mm
26%
Wed
18 Nov
6° 2°
67%2.0 mm
21%
Thu
19 Nov
6° 2°
100%4.5 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Sapporo
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Sapporo on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
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What each model says for Sapporo
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 9°/2° · 3.3 mm | 14°/2° · 9.9 mm | 15°/4° · 8.3 mm | 4°/1° · 3.1 mm | 4°/1° · 1.4 mm | 2°/-3° · 3.8 mm | 2°/-2° · 2.8 mm |
| ECMWF | 8°/1° · 4.6 mm | 14°/1° · 7.7 mm | 15°/4° · 7.8 mm | 3°/1° · 3.0 mm | 4°/1° · 1.2 mm | 2°/-5° · 5.1 mm | 1°/-6° · 2.8 mm |
| AIFS | 11°/2° · 3.4 mm | 13°/2° · 9.6 mm | 13°/4° · 15 mm | 4°/2° · 4.6 mm | 4°/1° · 1.6 mm | 1°/-3° · 3.0 mm | 4°/-3° · 0.2 mm |
| GFS | 7°/1° · 17 mm | 12°/2° · 6.9 mm | 15°/1° · 14 mm | 2°/-0° · 8.0 mm | 2°/-2° · 1.5 mm | 3°/-2° · 3.8 mm | 3°/-2° · 12 mm |
| ICON | 9°/2° · 2.1 mm | 15°/1° · 9.9 mm | 16°/4° · 6.4 mm | 4°/2° · 0.7 mm | 4°/1° · 0.0 mm | 4°/1° · 1.8 mm | 1°/-2° · 2.7 mm |
| GEM | 8°/1° · 3.1 mm | 13°/2° · 22 mm | 12°/2° · 4.4 mm | 2°/0° · 1.3 mm | 3°/-0° · 0.1 mm | 1°/-5° · 13 mm | 1°/-6° · 7.4 mm |
| JMA | 8°/3° · 1.9 mm | 15°/4° · 14 mm | 16°/5° · 15 mm | 4°/1° · 0.6 mm | 3°/1° · 0.6 mm | 2°/-0° · 9.8 mm | 2°/-2° · 21 mm |
| ARPEGE | 11°/4° · 3.7 mm | 14°/5° · 13 mm | 15°/4° · 8.3 mm | 3°/2° · 4.7 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 9°/4° · 3.3 mm | 11°/5° · 8.4 mm | 14°/5° · 6.8 mm | 4°/0° · 3.1 mm | 4°/1° · 2.3 mm | 1°/-3° · 1.2 mm | 6°/0° · 0.0 mm |
| CMA | 9°/5° · 2.5 mm | 15°/4° · 11 mm | 15°/5° · 22 mm | 4°/0° · 11 mm | 4°/2° · 1.8 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Tuesday
Confidence is only 47/100. JMA brings 21 mm of rain while UKMO has 0.0 mm; highs range from 1° (GEM) to 6° (UKMO). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Sapporo weather: questions
Will it rain in Sapporo tomorrow?
Rain expected: 100% of models agree, about 9.9 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 9.9 mm, ranging from 6.9 mm to 22 mm.
When will it rain next in Sapporo?
The next day most models agree on rain is Wednesday 4 November: 100% of models, about 3.3 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Sapporo today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 8°C with 4.6 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 7°C with 17 mm. The median of all 9 models is 9°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Sapporo?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Sapporo forecast this week?
The least certain day is Tuesday (confidence 47/100): JMA forecasts 21 mm of rain while UKMO forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:15 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology