Today
4 Nov
15° 12°
100%12 mm
77%
9 weather models · one stack
Tokyo weather
Tokyo, Japan
35.68°, 139.69° · 36 m
Local time 10:15
Confidence 77%
Tokyo weather today: 9 models agree with high confidence on a high of 15°C and a low of 12°C. Rain expected: 100% of models agree, about 12 mm. Tomorrow: 18°C. Rain expected: 100% of models agree, about 29 mm.
The stack
Each row is one weather model, each cell one hour. Same colour across rows = the models agree. Tap a model to hide it; hover for exact values.
16-day consensus
Each coloured line is one model's low→high; the dots are their highs. A tight cluster means a confident forecast.
Thu
5 Nov
18° 12°
100%29 mm
83%
Fri
6 Nov
24° 14°
0%0.0 mm
80%
Sat
7 Nov
18° 10°
0%0.0 mm
83%
Sun
8 Nov
15° 9°
25%0.0 mm
63%
Mon
9 Nov
14° 10°
71%1.8 mm
42%
Tue
10 Nov
12° 8°
29%0.0 mm
39%
Wed
11 Nov
15° 7°
0%0.0 mm
80%
Thu
12 Nov
16° 8°
0%0.0 mm
60%
Fri
13 Nov
17° 8°
20%0.0 mm
50%
Sat
14 Nov
19° 10°
25%0.0 mm
55%
Sun
15 Nov
15° 11°
33%0.4 mm
65%
Mon
16 Nov
15° 12°
67%3.0 mm
15%
Tue
17 Nov
16° 13°
67%1.3 mm
20%
Wed
18 Nov
16° 13°
67%10 mm
68%
Thu
19 Nov
15° 14°
100%3.3 mm
70%
Model spaghetti
Every model as a line, the bold line is the median, the shaded band the full model range. Rain shows accumulated totals from now.
Model maps around Tokyo
ECMWF and GFS rain forecasts over Tokyo on synced maps. Drag the divider or press play.
Loading model maps…
What each model says for Tokyo
Daily high/low and rain total per model. Blue = at least 1 mm.
| Model | Today | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | Sat 7 | Sun 8 | Mon 9 | Tue 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 15°/12° · 12 mm | 18°/12° · 29 mm | 24°/14° · 0.0 mm | 18°/10° · 0.0 mm | 15°/9° · 0.0 mm | 14°/10° · 1.8 mm | 12°/8° · 0.0 mm |
| ECMWF | 15°/12° · 11 mm | 18°/12° · 27 mm | 24°/13° · 0.0 mm | 17°/9° · 0.0 mm | 15°/9° · 0.0 mm | 14°/8° · 0.0 mm | 12°/8° · 0.0 mm |
| AIFS | 15°/13° · 12 mm | 17°/13° · 27 mm | 23°/14° · 0.0 mm | 18°/10° · 0.0 mm | 16°/9° · 0.0 mm | 13°/10° · 0.6 mm | 12°/8° · 0.0 mm |
| GFS | 18°/13° · 18 mm | 19°/13° · 29 mm | 24°/16° · 0.1 mm | 20°/13° · 0.0 mm | 16°/11° · 2.3 mm | 11°/10° · 10 mm | 15°/9° · 0.0 mm |
| ICON | 15°/12° · 11 mm | 18°/12° · 33 mm | 25°/14° · 0.0 mm | 19°/11° · 0.0 mm | 16°/10° · 0.0 mm | 14°/11° · 1.4 mm | 17°/11° · 4.3 mm |
| GEM | 13°/10° · 14 mm | 18°/11° · 17 mm | 21°/12° · 0.3 mm | 18°/9° · 0.0 mm | 17°/6° · 0.0 mm | 10°/6° · 9.5 mm | 10°/4° · 51 mm |
| JMA | 15°/11° · 5.2 mm | 16°/11° · 29 mm | 24°/13° · 0.0 mm | 18°/10° · 0.0 mm | 15°/9° · 1.2 mm | 17°/10° · 1.8 mm | 13°/7° · 0.0 mm |
| ARPEGE | 14°/12° · 13 mm | 19°/11° · 31 mm | 22°/14° · 0.0 mm | 18°/10° · 0.0 mm | - | - | - |
| UKMO | 18°/14° · 16 mm | 20°/13° · 36 mm | 24°/18° · 0.0 mm | 19°/11° · 0.0 mm | 15°/10° · 0.0 mm | 15°/10° · 2.4 mm | 12°/8° · 0.0 mm |
| CMA | 16°/10° · 5.5 mm | 19°/12° · 19 mm | 23°/14° · 0.0 mm | 16°/9° · 0.0 mm | 14°/8° · 0.0 mm | - | - |
Where the models disagree: Tuesday
Confidence is only 39/100. GEM brings 51 mm of rain while ECMWF has 0.0 mm; highs range from 10° (GEM) to 17° (ICON). Check back: the next model runs will usually narrow this down.
Tokyo weather: questions
Will it rain in Tokyo tomorrow?
Rain expected: 100% of models agree, about 29 mm. Across 9 weather models the median total is 29 mm, ranging from 17 mm to 36 mm.
When will it rain next in Tokyo?
The next day most models agree on rain is Wednesday 4 November: 100% of models, about 12 mm.
What do ECMWF and GFS say for Tokyo today?
ECMWF (the European model) forecasts a high of 15°C with 11 mm of rain; GFS (the American model) says 18°C with 18 mm. The median of all 9 models is 15°C.
Which weather model is most accurate for Tokyo?
On average ECMWF scores best in global verification beyond 2–3 days, with the UK Met Office close behind. For the first 48 hours, high-resolution regional models (ICON-D2, AROME, HRRR, UKV) often win locally. The most reliable single number is usually the multi-model consensus shown on this page.
How reliable is the Tokyo forecast this week?
The least certain day is Tuesday (confidence 39/100): GEM forecasts 51 mm of rain while ECMWF forecasts 0.0 mm.
Nearby forecasts
Model runs fetched at 01:15 UTC. Sources: ECMWF IFS · ECMWF AIFS · NOAA GFS · DWD ICON · Canadian GEM · JMA GSM · Météo-France ARPEGE / AROME · UK Met Office · CMA GRAPES · Methodology